It's just insane how after 40 days of full scale war, we're essentially right back to where we were - the US demanding Iran surrender its enriched uranium and threatening to take it by force.
This is far from being over.
The salient issue of the war (Iran's uranium stockpile) remains unresolved after 40 days of conflict.
Extremely unlikely that Iran surrenders it. If Trump is determined to secure it, he'll have to order a highly risky operation to capture it, which could plunge Iran/US and the region back into war.
Hegseth:
"On the uranium, we're watching it. We know what they have. And they will give it up. And we'll get it. And we'll take it... We can do it in any means necessary."
And, no. Trump and Netanyahu being global menaces does not mean that we should want Iran to get nuclear weapons.
Anyone suggesting they should needs to educate themselves on the sadistic barbarity of the regime. Speak to Iranian victims of the regime. Their testimonies are not hard to find.
The US and Israel have likely destroyed Iran’s ability to enrich more uranium, or at least set it back long enough to allow a significant time buffer.
But it’s irrelevant if Iran remains (and has access to) its existing stockpile of 450kg uranium, which could create roughly ten crude nuclear bombs.
Forget Hormuz.
The greatest global catastrophe that may occur now is if Iran retains its 450kg of 60% enriched uranium.
Iran wanted to remain a nuclear threshold state (able to construct nukes quickly).
But now that the US/Israel attempted regime change, it may well now actually build nukes.
The NYT is reporting that Iran, in addition to gaining administrative control over the Strait of Hormuz, will now charge $2 million per vessel for safe passage, which it will split with Oman.
It was free pre-war.
Trump and Netanyahu have only increased Iranian leverage over the global economy.
Iran always had the potential to threaten and shut down shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. But it never had formal administrative control over it. Given that safe passage will now only be possible via coordination with Iran’s military, this is a significant increase in Iranian control over it.
Iran always had the potential to threaten and shut down activity though the Strait. But it never had administrative control over it. Given that safe passage for ships will now only be possible via coordination with Iran’s military, this does represent a significant increase in control over it.
Iran confirms a ceasefire agreement but notes it will continue to “control the Strait of Hormuz", with safe passage for ships achieved via coordination with Iran’s military.
Iran did not “control” Hormuz pre-war.
US acknowledgement of Iran controlling Hormuz is a strategic defeat and humiliation.
If Iran hasn’t agreed to the terms of this ceasefire, then this is merely a unilateral de-escalation by Trump disguised as a deal.
That would put Trump in an even weaker position in the war/negotiations because he will have demonstrated to Iran that his threats are a TACO bluff.
Pakistani PM Sharif is a servant of Trump.
He does exactly what Trump orders him to do.
At the US Gaza Peace Summit in October, he was handed a note after Trump asked him to speak. He read out a statement that lavished praise on Trump, including identical wording to Trump’s own self-compliments.
Another astounding epic photo from the dark side of the Moon - just released by NASA.
Vance:
"We want you to make a decision about your future with no outside forces pressuring you or telling you what to do. I'm not telling you exactly who to vote for."
Vance 20 minutes later:
"Go to the polls at the weekend. Stand with Viktor Orbán!"
"EARTHSET" - taken by Artemis II.
One of the greatest privileges of being alive right now is the ability to see photographs like this.
Truly spectacular.
I do not say this lightly. I am a grandchild of German Jews.
Trump's rampage through the international order, and normalisation of racism, dehumanisation and global lawlessness, carries the same potential for worldwide catastrophe as what Hitler unleashed.
He is cultivating the worst of humanity.
Donald Trump is a Hitler-level tyrant.
Vance in Hungary:
"I want to help as much as I possibly can the PM [Orbán] as he faces this election... A signal to everybody, particularly bureaucrats in Brussels who've done everything they can to hold down the people of Hungary".
Falsely accusing others of interfering as he admits interfering.
The US has conducted airstrikes on Iran's Kharg Island this morning - a possible precursor to a ground invasion.
Meanwhile, US-Iran negotiations have stalled, and the IRGC has warned its neighbours today that its "restraint is over".
At this point, escalation seems more likely than de-escalation.
I've been increasingly wondering whether Trump would resort to a tactical nuke given his lack of conventional military options to resolve the problems caused by his war and his resulting global humiliation. He does seem genuinely terrified of nuclear war though, which I'm hoping would be deter this.
Never in the history of our species has such enormous physical power been so recklessly, casually and clumsily wielded & threatened in the world.
It is blindingly contrary to humanity’s welfare that this orange menace is still permitted to occupy the presidency.
Shame on the GOP for enabling this.
Trump less than 48 hours ago:
"They have no anti-aircraft equipment.”
Exceptionally beautiful images of Earth taken by the Artemis II crew.
Our planet looks so peaceful from up there.
I suspect one reason for the failure to maintain momentum is that Bluesky users are disproportionately more distressed/exhausted by news content (dominated by the orange menace) compared to X/Threads user bases, and are therefore more likely to be detoxing from social media platforms that they use.
French President Macron:
“Europe is an extremely attractive continent. For months I’ve been saying this. And thanks to our American friends, I now have an unprecedented selling point: We are predictable.”
F-15 & A-10 may have been downed by shoulder-mounted rockets. Perhaps the start of an asymmetric insurgency - one that will be virtually impossible for the US to counter.
Shoulder-mounted rockets are way harder to eliminate vs ballistic launchers (as Soviets catastrophically learnt in Afghanistan).
US air operations in Iran today:
- F-15 shot down by Iran.
- One crew member rescued, one still missing.
- A-10 Warthog "crashed" near Hormuz.
- Black Hawk hit by Iranian fire during a rescue mission for the F-15 crew.
It's been 23 days since Trump declared total victory in Iran.
Trump has been bragging on a daily basis that the US has total dominance over Iranian airspace.
Today, Iran downed a US F-15. The US Military is now frantically searching for the crew. If Iran gets to them first, they will have hostages.
The last time Iran had US hostages, it ended a presidency.
Full interview:
youtu.be/2kNgo8p3uCw?...
Trump's move to withdraw from NATO is a treacherous betrayal of the West.
NATO is a defensive alliance. It is not an extension of the US Military for Trump to order around to compensate for his lack of competence and planning on the Iran war.
Good to discuss on FirstPost.
