The fiscal challenge Canada’s provinces don’t want you to talk about Every single province is now running a deficit

Our governments’ finances face a growth problem, not just a budget problem.

My latest for @TheHubCanada on why productivity changes everything: thehub.ca/2026/04/01/... #cdnecon #cdnpoli

Oil prices (WTI) ended March just under $102/bbl. Adjusted for inflation, that's the second largest monthly $/bbl increase ever and the third largest % increase. #cdnecon

Alberta's fiscal year ends in two weeks. With oil prices up, the government's deficit forecast of $4.1 billion is now on track for roughly half that. #ableg

What do rising oil prices mean for Canadian households?

In my latest for @TheHubCanada, I estimate the costs for gasoline, energy, and (just as importantly!) all other goods and services throughout the supply chain. Overall, about $1,000/yr/household.

thehub.ca/2026/03/18/... #cdnecon #cdnpoli

Have Alberta’s finances gone off the rails?

Have Alberta's finances gone off the rails?

My latest for @TheHubCanada on the province's latest budget. thehub.ca/2026/03/03/... #ableg #cdnpoli #cdnecon

THE DR. FRANK ANTON DISTINGUISHED LECTURE IN ECONOMICS - 2026 Is it Possible to Understand Trump’s Trade Policy?

So excited to welcome Doug Irwin (@D_A_Irwin) to Calgary in a few weeks for the 2026 Distinguished Lecture in Economics! It will be a must-hear talk on all the trade policy changes happening today. 🤓

All are welcome! Details here: events.ucalgary.ca/arts/econom... #cdnecon #cdnpoli

How the risk of separation could cost Alberta thousands of jobs The hidden costs of political uncertainty are high

The hidden costs of political uncertainty are high. We can see that in Canada's job market today. And there's a lesson for those who view Alberta separatism as a costless protest vote. It isn't.

My latest for @TheHubCanada: thehub.ca/2026/02/19/... #cdnecon #cdnpoli

Trevor Tombe: Canada has a productivity problem. Research is how we fix it

Canada has a productivity problem. Research can help.

A new piece from me in @nationalpost on a broad partnership to build new tools, evidence, and talent to raise living standards and strengthen prosperity for decades to come. nationalpost.com/opinion/can... #cdnecon #cdnpoli

Thrilled for the 7th event in @policy_school’s Canada’s Productivity Initiative in partnership with Rotman, featuring insight from Carolyn Rogers, Bill Morneau, Susan Black, Glenda Crisp, and so many more.

Livestream available: community.rotman.utoronto.ca/events/s/sp... #cdnecon #cdnpoli

Rising separatist sentiment could come with real risks to jobs and income. I estimate nearly 2 million jobs depend on interprovincial trade with Alberta and Quebec.

My latest for @TheHubCanada here: thehub.ca/2026/02/04/... #cdnecon #cdnpoli

New population projections from Statistics Canada suggest that Alberta may become the third largest province within a decade, although much depends on the level of interprovincial migration.

www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-qu... #cdnecon #cdnpoli

Very happy to have contributed to the latest research from the IMF on internal trade in Canada. Summary here 👇

"Canada Can Grow Faster by Unlocking Its Own Market" www.imf.org/en/news/art... #cdnecon #cdnpoli

Will the U.S. Fed bend to Trump's will? And what would a less independent U.S. central bank mean for Canada's economy?

Excellent 'On The Line' podcast episode on central bank independence, and understanding the latest threats to the US Fed.

Jen Gerson and Chris Ragan: www.readtheline.ca/p/will-the-u... #cdnpoli #cdnecon

The Politics of Internal Trade: Narratives, Public Opinion and Canadian Federalism - Centre of Excellence on the Canadian Federation Introduction In response to the ongoing trade war between Canada and the United States, triggered by Donald Trump’s return to the White House, calls to liberalize trade within Canada have gained unpre...

Sharing this new @irpp.org paper on #internaltrade by Diya Jiang, @trevortombe.bsky.social and I: “The Politics of Internal Trade: Narratives, Public Opinion and Canadian Federalism” @mcgillpolisci.bsky.social @cpsa-acsp.bsky.social centre.irpp.org/research-stu...

An Alberta budget crisis? It may be closer than you think

Alberta's "royalty rollercoaster" is larger than ever.

Oil price moves now cost the government ~5x more per $1/bbl than a decade ago. Something will have to give. And soon.

My latest for @TheHubCanada on Alberta's upcoming fiscal challenges: thehub.ca/2026/01/08/... #cdnecon #cdnpoli

Reading Is a Vice Being a reader means cultivating a relationship with the world that, by most standards, can seem pointless and counterproductive.

"If you read a book in 2025—just one book—you belong to an endangered species...fewer than half of Americans had read a single book in the previous 12 months; only 38 percent had read a novel or short story." www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/0...

Statistics Canada (Sean Clarke + Andrew Fields) finds Canada's 2025 employment drop stemmed from industries reliant on U.S. exports. The cause? Not increased layoffs, but reduced hiring rates. (Maybe b/c high uncertainty.)

Details: www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/36-2... #cdnecon

Interesting new Statistics Canada paper on firm sizes and the Canada-U.S. productivity gap. Shows most of our gap is due to Canada having more small firms (less productive). But most of the widening gap is due to large firms lagging.

Details: www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/36-2... #cdnecon

New estimates of the federal government's long term fiscal trajectory from the PBO released earlier this week shows almost all of the federal fiscal room since FES2024 is used up now: www.pbo-dpb.ca/en/addition... #cdnecon #cdnpoli

Really enjoyed contributing to this Alberta Views dialogue on equalization! 👇

Is Equalization Unfair to Alberta? - Alberta Views The equalization payment reflects a core value: ensuring all Canadians can receive normal public services without paying abnormally high taxes

Tegan Hill: Yes, Albertans will contribute roughly $4.2-billion to equalization this year while receiving no direct benefit

@trevortombe.bsky.social: No, equalization is funded by federal taxes paid by individuals at the same rate across the country
albertaviews.ca/equalization...
#ABleg #CndPoli

An incredibly fascinating new paper by Casey Pender and Vincent Geloso (@VincentGeloso) on what we can learn from the most significant period of Canadian economic convergence with the U.S.

Read it here: www.policyschool.ca/wp-content/... #cdnecon #cdnpoli @policy_school

As Alberta completes its first full year without coal in its power supply mix, renewables (wind, solar, and hydro) have reached 22% of total generation and natural gas makes up 78%.

Get ready for a troubling new era for the Canadian economy What the biggest economic stories of 2025 mean for Canada's fiscal future

Waiting for a return to “normal” is a mistake. A new era for Canada’s economy has already begun.

My latest for @TheHubCanada on what the biggest economic stories of 2025 mean for Canada's future: thehub.ca/2025/12/11/... #cdnpoli #cdnecon

Strong jobs report from StatCan this morning. Employment rose 54k in November, and unemployment fell to 6.5%, down 0.6 points from its peak.

More details here: www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-qu... #cdnecon

Today's data: GDP growth for the third quarter of 2025. Positive growth of 0.6% compared to Q2 (annualized rate of 2.6%). A strong report overall, headline growth beat expectations.

Details from StatCan here: www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-qu... #cdnecon

Canada-Alberta Memorandum of Understanding PREFACE At this pivotal global moment, Canada and Alberta, working closely with Indigenous Peoples and industry, must work together cooperatively, and within their respective jurisdictions, to foster the conditions necessary for infrastructure, including pipelines, rail, power generation, a strong and integrated transmission grid, ports and other means that will unlock and grow natural resource production and transportation in Western Canada.

Full text of the agreement between the federal and Alberta governments is available here: www.pm.gc.ca/en/news/bac... It's big. Strong commitments for a new pipeline to the west coast, and significant increases in climate policy stringency in AB to go along with it.

Note that the agreement they signed is far smaller than what we analyzed (doesn’t include food, and more importantly services / credentials) but is meaningful. Services liberalization is where the larger gains are, we estimate. So more work to do.

Liberalizing internal trade through mutual recognition: A legal and economic analysis | Macdonald-Laurier Institute A new MLI study finds that, if Canada is to break its internal trade barriers, mutual recognition is a solution well worth considering.

An important step for internal trade! The “Canadian Mutual Recognition Agreement” signed yesterday could yield real economic gains: www.ctvnews.ca/canada/arti...

For some analysis on what MR means, see this by me and Ryan Manucha: macdonaldlaurier.ca/liberalizin... #cdnecon #cdnpoli

Today's data: inflation 📈 www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-qu...

Consumer prices rose 2.2% since October 2024. But since it matters what you buy, experiences vary. Lower-income, single renters faced highest increases. Relevant to understand affordability concerns. #cdnecon #cdnpoli