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Latest Posts by David Dayen

It is unheard of. A canal with locks requires manpower and maintenance. This is just some Barbary pirate shit, now sanctioned and effectively made legal

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Surely the Strait of Hormuz will remain the only toolbooth in global shipping and navigation around the world, no way it becomes a model for countries seeking independence and treasure

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Two senior Iranian officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive negotiations, said the proposal included a guarantee that Iran would not be attacked again, an end to Israeli strikes against Hezbollah in Lebanon and the lifting of all sanctions.

In return, Iran would lift its de facto blockade of the key shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran would also impose a fee of roughly $2 million per ship that it would split with Oman, which sits across the strait. Iran would use its share of the proceeds to reconstruct infrastructure destroyed by American and Israeli attacks, rather than demand direct compensation, according to the plan.

Two senior Iranian officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive negotiations, said the proposal included a guarantee that Iran would not be attacked again, an end to Israeli strikes against Hezbollah in Lebanon and the lifting of all sanctions. In return, Iran would lift its de facto blockade of the key shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran would also impose a fee of roughly $2 million per ship that it would split with Oman, which sits across the strait. Iran would use its share of the proceeds to reconstruct infrastructure destroyed by American and Israeli attacks, rather than demand direct compensation, according to the plan.

But even if Trump announced the immediate cessation of hostilities and drove to the Pentagon to pull back the bombers personally, the implications of his decision to attack Iran are already determined, and eventually the investors wishcasting that everything will soon go back to normal will figure that out. This war has been an elaborate, destructive way to teach Iran a lesson, and unfortunately for the U.S., Israel, and the world, that lesson has been: Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz.

More from David Dayen

This is new information to Iran. The country had not been monetizing its geographic good fortune of having 20 percent of the world’s oil, 20 percent of the world’s liquefied natural gas, and one-third of the world’s nitrogen-based fertilizer pass near its shoreline. Closing the strait was always an implied threat that would result from aggressive action against the nation or its leadership, something known to everyone in the world except Donald Trump, it appears. But the threat was typically closure, and what’s emerging is something quite different. Iran has slowly realized that, unbelievably, it can actually get away with throwing a tollgate across the strait. Thanks to Trump and Israel, Iran has gained immense economic and diplomatic leverage.

This means that the outcome of the war is immaterial from an economic standpoint. There will now be a permanently higher cost to shipping in one of the world’s most important choke points, as a new middleman enters the picture. This will make oil, gas, fertilizer, and a host of other products either derived from or relying on these commodities permanently more expensive. This price level increase changes the calculations of entire economies and heightens the need for an energy transition. That could be hopeful for the planet as green technologies become even more urgently necessary. But in the short term, it leads to mass suffering, resource wars, and geopolitical chaos. Pandora and her box had nothing on Trump.

But even if Trump announced the immediate cessation of hostilities and drove to the Pentagon to pull back the bombers personally, the implications of his decision to attack Iran are already determined, and eventually the investors wishcasting that everything will soon go back to normal will figure that out. This war has been an elaborate, destructive way to teach Iran a lesson, and unfortunately for the U.S., Israel, and the world, that lesson has been: Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz. More from David Dayen This is new information to Iran. The country had not been monetizing its geographic good fortune of having 20 percent of the world’s oil, 20 percent of the world’s liquefied natural gas, and one-third of the world’s nitrogen-based fertilizer pass near its shoreline. Closing the strait was always an implied threat that would result from aggressive action against the nation or its leadership, something known to everyone in the world except Donald Trump, it appears. But the threat was typically closure, and what’s emerging is something quite different. Iran has slowly realized that, unbelievably, it can actually get away with throwing a tollgate across the strait. Thanks to Trump and Israel, Iran has gained immense economic and diplomatic leverage. This means that the outcome of the war is immaterial from an economic standpoint. There will now be a permanently higher cost to shipping in one of the world’s most important choke points, as a new middleman enters the picture. This will make oil, gas, fertilizer, and a host of other products either derived from or relying on these commodities permanently more expensive. This price level increase changes the calculations of entire economies and heightens the need for an energy transition. That could be hopeful for the planet as green technologies become even more urgently necessary. But in the short term, it leads to mass suffering, resource wars, and geopolitical chaos. Pandora and her box had nothing on Trump.

Left: the 10-point plan (offered by Iran weeks ago) that's the framework of the cease-fire.
Right: Me, a week ago.
Read @prospect.org, get the news first.
prospect.org/2026/04/02/o...

8 hours ago 129 26 3 1

It was a much because Eisenhower had a secret heart attack

11 hours ago 3 0 0 0

Ok not the anticipated war crimes

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The 10-point proposal was the same one Iran sent several days ago, I'd gather.
Apprentice cliffhangers from the C to D block were less insulting than this.

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Based on conversations with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Field Marshal Asim Munir, of Pakistan, and wherein they requested that I hold off the destructive force being sent tonight to Iran, and subject to the Islamic Republic of Iran agreeing to the COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING of the Strait of Hormuz, I agree to suspend the bombing and attack of Iran for a period of two weeks. This will be a double sided CEASEFIRE! The reason for doing so is that we have already met and exceeded all Military objectives, and are very far along with a definitive Agreement concerning Longterm PEACE with Iran, and PEACE in the Middle East. We received a 10 point proposal from Iran, and believe it is a workable basis on which to negotiate. Almost all of the various points of past contention have been agreed to between the United States and Iran, but a two week period will allow the Agreement to be finalized and consummated. On behalf of the United States of America, as President, and also representing the Countries of the Middle East, it is an Honor to have this Longterm problem close to resolution. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP

Based on conversations with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Field Marshal Asim Munir, of Pakistan, and wherein they requested that I hold off the destructive force being sent tonight to Iran, and subject to the Islamic Republic of Iran agreeing to the COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING of the Strait of Hormuz, I agree to suspend the bombing and attack of Iran for a period of two weeks. This will be a double sided CEASEFIRE! The reason for doing so is that we have already met and exceeded all Military objectives, and are very far along with a definitive Agreement concerning Longterm PEACE with Iran, and PEACE in the Middle East. We received a 10 point proposal from Iran, and believe it is a workable basis on which to negotiate. Almost all of the various points of past contention have been agreed to between the United States and Iran, but a two week period will allow the Agreement to be finalized and consummated. On behalf of the United States of America, as President, and also representing the Countries of the Middle East, it is an Honor to have this Longterm problem close to resolution. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP

No war crimes today, yay

14 hours ago 133 25 13 6
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I was stunned that this was possible, but it was! The first time we called he was teaching his class, which amazingly at age 89 he still does!

14 hours ago 27 2 0 0
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Who Wrote the 25th Amendment? - The American Prospect It turns out he’s still alive, and still teaching at Fordham Law. We had some questions about an amendment that wasn’t written to meet a moment like this.

So we talked to the author of the 25th amendment. (89 years young!) And we went through the text. It solved a real problem, but it wasn't the problem we have right now. I'd like a deus ex machina for what we're going through too, but this ain't it.
From Moe Tkacik and I:
prospect.org/2026/04/07/w...

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I know the first thing I'm going to be checking at 8pm tonight is my 401k prices in the futures markets

16 hours ago 79 10 4 0
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A Retrospective on Bidenomics - The American Prospect Joe Biden listened to the left on full employment. But the lasting effects were wanting, and the politics were brutal.

I did a deepish dive into the legacy of Bidenomics--why it worked economically quite well, but politically not so much prospect.org/2026/04/07/a...

22 hours ago 228 52 7 11
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Trump Goes Full Genghis Khan - The American Prospect ‘A whole civilization will die tonight,’ he vows.

Donald Trump's preference for violence goes back to taking out a full-page ad demanding the execution of the Central Park Five. He believes that the only real leaders are autocrats.
As the clock ticks down, Harold Meyerson says that he's found a new model: Genghis Khan.
prospect.org/2026/04/07/t...

17 hours ago 48 13 2 1
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Rickipedia | Substack Occasional reflections, mostly personal. Click to read Rickipedia, by Rick Perlstein, a Substack publication with thousands of subscribers.

I've finished "The Infernal Triangle: How America Got this Way." Farewell to the 5-book project that consumed some 30 years, over half my life! For the nonce, writing deadline-free on this Substack. First 50 subs get signed books or personal Zoom greetings. PAY ME!!!

rickperlstein.substack.com

23 hours ago 153 21 18 10

It actually might be pretty bad if it was, you can easily see it being used for a palace coup. The cabinet kidnaps the president, sends the letter to the Congress, and keeps the president holed up for a few days so he can't send the letter saying he's OK. That's legal under this amendment!

20 hours ago 3 0 1 0
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By the way, we called this guy and he's TEACHING A CLASS right now.

20 hours ago 35 7 1 0

This wasn't purpose-built for a speaking, walking, talking man with insane and evil ideas.

20 hours ago 86 7 8 0

It gets crazier.
If the president writes to the House & Senate & says "actually I'm fine," he gets his job back. But if the VP & the cabinet (or this other body created by Congress) writes in & says "no he's not fine," then Congress must assemble & vote.
You'd need a 2/3 vote to depose the president

20 hours ago 42 9 3 1
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John D. Feerick | Fordham School of Law

I guess you could override that veto, but you'd need a two-thirds vote, so again, if there's any question it's not going to happen.
Can't blame this one on the founders, this amendment was written in the 60s!
And the guy who wrote it is still alive!
www.fordham.edu/school-of-la...

20 hours ago 25 4 1 1

Congress would do that by passing a law.
Which has to be signed.
By the president.
Who isn't going to sign a law establishing a body of officials to throw him/her out of office.

20 hours ago 15 3 1 0

OK so first you need a majority of the cabinet chosen by the president to toss the president out in a palace coup. Unless the president is in a coma, that seems unlikely.
But wait! Congress has a role! They can select a body of officials to make the determination!
However-

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Section 4. Whenever the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive departments or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall immediately assume the powers and duties of the office as Acting President.

Thereafter, when the President transmits to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives his written declaration that no inability exists, he shall resume the powers and duties of his office unless the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive department [sic][note 2][7] or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit within four days to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office. Thereupon Congress shall decide the issue, assembling within forty-eight hours for that purpose if not in session. If the Congress, within twenty-one days after receipt of the latter written declaration, or, if Congress is not in session, within twenty-one days after Congress is required to assemble, determines by two-thirds vote of both Houses that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall continue to discharge the same as Acting President; otherwise, the President shall resume the powers and duties of his office.

Section 4. Whenever the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive departments or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall immediately assume the powers and duties of the office as Acting President. Thereafter, when the President transmits to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives his written declaration that no inability exists, he shall resume the powers and duties of his office unless the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive department [sic][note 2][7] or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit within four days to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office. Thereupon Congress shall decide the issue, assembling within forty-eight hours for that purpose if not in session. If the Congress, within twenty-one days after receipt of the latter written declaration, or, if Congress is not in session, within twenty-one days after Congress is required to assemble, determines by two-thirds vote of both Houses that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall continue to discharge the same as Acting President; otherwise, the President shall resume the powers and duties of his office.

The 25th amendment Sec. 4, just as a remedy for presidential incapacitation, seems really, really flawed unless the circumstances are super-clear. This is it:

20 hours ago 162 48 17 9
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The “Moderate” Think Tank Backed By AI Money The Searchlight Institute has pushed Democrats toward lighter regulation of AI and data centers while keeping quiet about board ties to Simone Cox, whose family fortune is linked to Nvidia.

Why are the CEO of the Texas Tribune and the co-founder of Cal Matters both on the board of a group that takes a hardline position in factional Democratic Party debates, when they are reporting on those debates?
www.levernews.com/the-moderate...

20 hours ago 43 18 1 2
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Iran Ends Direct US Contact After Trump’s Latest Threat, Report Says

(Bloomberg) - Hardline conservative Senator Ron Johnson of Wisconsin became one of the first Republican members of Congress to publicly oppose Trump’s threat to bomb civilian infrastructure and “wipe out” Iran’s civilization.

@bloomberg.com #WIsen
www.bloomberg.com/news/live-bl...

20 hours ago 684 202 45 25

MTG, Alex Jones, Tucker Carlson

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The madman strategy is more unnerving when practiced by a madman

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Washington Post
Trump warns ‘a whole civilization will die’ if Iran doesn’t make a deal
The president had issued a deadline of 8 p.m. Eastern time for Iran to open up the Strait of Hormuz, pledging destruction by midnight if leaders don’t comply.

April 7, 2026 at 9:22 a.m. EDT26 minutes ago
2 min

Washington Post Trump warns ‘a whole civilization will die’ if Iran doesn’t make a deal The president had issued a deadline of 8 p.m. Eastern time for Iran to open up the Strait of Hormuz, pledging destruction by midnight if leaders don’t comply. April 7, 2026 at 9:22 a.m. EDT26 minutes ago 2 min

Completely unstable and perilous. The House must bring up impeachment articles, and the Senate needs to remove a president who wants to commit war crimes. We cannot sit idly by as Donald Trump threatens to end an entire civilization.

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GOP War on Health Care Destroying Hospitals at Home and Abroad - The American Prospect More than 800 health care facilities are at risk or have already closed since Republicans severely cut funding last year. The worst is still ahead.

We've collectively ignored the damage to the health system from the twin blows of Medicaid cuts & the expiration of ACA subsidies. But more than 800 US health facilities have either closed entirely, cut services, or are at risk, & we're just at the beginning. @whitneycwimbish.bsky.social reports.

22 hours ago 76 57 1 4
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A Retrospective on Bidenomics - The American Prospect Joe Biden listened to the left on full employment. But the lasting effects were wanting, and the politics were brutal.

Remember Joe Biden? The guy who didn't rip civilization to shreds?
Anyway he had a pretty good economic program of full employment and industrial rebuilding. But he tore down America's best-ever welfare state at a time of high inflation. And it cost him.
@ryanlcooper.com has a retrospective:

22 hours ago 46 17 6 1
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Why We’re Removing Our Programmatic Ads - The American Prospect Online advertising is bad for users, publishers, and even advertisers. The only beneficiaries are the Big Tech platforms. We’re doing something about it.

one of the worst aspects of the modern internet is programmatic ads--cluttered, obnoxious, heavy, slow, and mainly benefits Google. well @prospect.org we are ditching programmatic ads, but still keeping everything free to read: prospect.org/2026/04/06/w...

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Medicare Insurer Payments to Rise 2.48% in 2027, Causing Stocks to Surge The move is a marked improvement to the proposal in January, which held rates roughly flat.

There were a lot of cheers when Trump's HHS kept Medicare Advantage payments flat in an initial announcement in January. Turns out that was halftime, before the money boys rolled in.
www.wsj.com/health/healt...

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