"The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 1 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 1 percent compared with the previous week and was 7 percent lower than the same week one year ago."
There is a way forward when the wrong tactics have been used.
1. Change negotiators.
2. Deescalate
"The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) rose to 215.3, reflecting a 6.2% increase for wholesale used-vehicle prices (adjusted for mix, mileage, and seasonality) compared to March 2025." www.coxautoinc.com/insights/man...
more inflation.
Mr. Trump keeps using the wrong tactics in negotiating with Congress, allies and adversaries (lies, threats, bullying). Not only has this been ineffective, but it is extremely damaging long term.
end/
This brings us to Iran. Trump has experience in distributive negotiations (buying and selling real estate), but apparently little or no experience in Integrative negotiations.
7/
A company could use the Distributive negotiation tactics with a worker’s union, but they would probably face an extended strike followed by a long period of ill-will.
6/
It is important to understand when each approach is appropriate. A used car buyer could use the Integrative negotiation approach, but they probably wouldn’t get a very good deal.
5/
The approach to an integrative negotiation includes building trust, understanding the other party’s concerns, and knowing the details of the agreement – with the goal to reach a mutually beneficial agreement.
4/
The tactics for the two types of negotiations are very different. In the first type, bluffing, threats (like threatening to walk away), even lying are commonly used.
3/
The other type of negotiation is or Integrative negotiation. This type is used when negotiating between a company and a worker’s union, with long term suppliers, negotiating agreements between international allies – and even with adversaries.
2/
A thread on negotiations ...
In general, there are two types of negotiations. There is Distributive negotiation where one party receives more and the other party receives less. This is the common approach when buying a car or real estate, or haggling at a street market.
1/
Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.3% Below 2022 Peak
Price-to-rent index is 9.7% below 2022 peak
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/inflation-...
Goldman on March CPI: "Our forecast implies a large increase in year-over-year headline CPI inflation from 2.43% to 3.28%. Energy prices are likely to rise sharply again in April, taking headline CPI inflation to around 4%."
April ICE Mortgage Monitor: "Annual home price growth was 0.4% in March
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/april-ice-...
Image is WTI price of $114.58
WTI Oil at $114.56 (gasoline will be close to $5 nationally if this gets above $120)
Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 178,000 in March, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.3 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.
Gasoline prices over last 18 months. Now $4.07 national average
National average gasoline at $4.07. Probably take $120 WTI oil to get to $5 per gallon Gas (WTI now at $112 per barrel)
Graph shows collapse in heavy truck sales
Heavy Truck sales down 25% YoY in March (OUCH)
Oops March (not February)
Graph of vehicle sales since 1967
Vehicle Sales at 16.34 million SAAR in February down 8.7% YoY
line chart showing gpdnow estimate at 1.4%
On April 2, the GDPNow model nowcast of real #GDP growth in Q1 2026 is 1.4%: bit.ly/32EYojR.
Download our EconomyNow app or go to our website for the latest GDPNow nowcast: atlfed.org/46BOWkD.
WTI Oil at $113 per barrel, up 13% from yesterday
Oh my, via CNBC WTI
Graph of unemployment claims (still low)
"In the week ending March 28, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 202,000, a decrease of 9,000 from the previous week's revised level."
There was a time (most of the time) when a President made a false statement, the White House would issue a correction later that day. And the major news outlets would lead with the story.
Not for this administration - too many false statements.
No thank you.
FHFA’s Q4 National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/fhfas-q4-n...
BofA on inflation outlook: "Headline PCE is now expected to surge ... close to 4% this quarter. ... we now project price levels at the end of next year to be 50bp above our prior forecast ... i)higher food inflation in 2027 ... and ii) lasting global supply chain problems."
