Listen to Marketplace radio with Sabri Ben-Achor to hear KPMG chief economist Diane Swonk on the economic outlook.

The threshold for a rate cut rose in March. The Fed could finally bring the debate about risks that the next rate move could be up or down likely to make it out of discussion in the statement in March.

Same data suggests that payroll employment will be negative for 2025 when the revisions for 2025 come out in February 2027…jobless boomlet.

Me too!

Wow. Pure moment of joy watching Artemis ll launch successfully with my family. To journey where no humans have gone before…hope springs eternal. That which binds us is greater than that which divides us. Break bread, not ties. Be kind; pay it forward.

New meaning to the Dark Side of the Moon.

Powell sees inflation outlook in check, no need to hike rates because of oil shock Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell spoke Monday at Harvard University.

Fed sounding way too dovish…this is more than an oil shock….

Powell sees inflation outlook in check, no need to hike rates because of oil shock Powell sees inflation outlook in check, no need to hike rates because of oil shock www.cnbc.com/2026/03/30/p...

sca.isr.umich.edu

Overall, the short-run economic outlook plunged 14%,
and year-ahead expected personal finances sank 10%,
while declines in long-run expectations were more subdued.”

Consumers with middle and higher incomes and stock wealth, buffeted by both escalating gas prices and volatile financial markets in the wake of the Iran conflict, exhibited particularly large drops in sentiment.

Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu
”Consumer sentiment fell back 6% this month to its lowest level since December 2025. Declines were seen across age and political party.

Testing the voracity of the K shaped economy.

Note. Wealth effects tend to be asymmetric- the hurt mort when wealth hit than help when wealth expands, although there is the largest cushion for affluent household on record - both absolute & after adjusting for inflation.

Those funds could dry up and shift away from the dollar and diminish the exorbitant privilege of its reserve currency status. That could raise interest costs much more than we have already seen and add to the fragility of financial markets. That would hurt not help the US economy.

“They are among the most important investors in U.S. private equity funds, and in almost every major endeavor requiring major investments.”

In NewYork Times

Why do we care?

“People focus only on the fact that the Gulf countries have exported oil and gas…They also export capital. Today they are huge players in the world financial system..Their sovereign wealth funds are really very significant forces.” said David Yergin, oil industry guru & Vice Chair of S&P Global.

The Oil Shocks of the ’70s Changed the World. Will the Iran War Do the Same?

Those funds could dry up and shift away from the dollar and diminish the exorbitant privilege of its reserve currency status. That could raise interest costs much more than we have already seen & add to the fragility of financial markets.

www.nytimes.com/2026/03/28/b...

They are among the most important investors in U.S. private equity funds, and in almost every major endeavor requiring major investments.

Why do we care?

People focus only on the fact that the Gulf countries have exported oil and gas…They also export capital. Today they are huge players in the world financial system..Their sovereign wealth funds are really very significant forces.” said David Yergin, oil industry guru & Vice Chair of S&P Global.

Markets now see the Fed's next move as a potential rate hike as inflation fears mount Traders in the futures market shifted the probability of a rate increase by the end of 2026 to 52% on Friday morning.

Stagflation risks are a reality that will stress the Fed.

Markets see the Fed's next move as a potential hike as oil prices, inflation fears rise www.cnbc.com/2026/03/27/m...

Amazing and appreciate your work.

I'm guessing this is what you had in mind. bsky.app/profile/paul...

Yes. Thank you!

Hybrid and WFH adds to productivity & reproductivity, but many reasons that kids should be in school five days a week. Crime is highlighted in this paper.

Same time Gen Z spending more time alone/lonely and online. Losing import social skills. The insular lives of young people really matter.

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics The Bureau of Labor Statistics is the principal fact-finding agency for the Federal Government in the broad field of labor economics and statistics.

This doesn’t bode well for inflation and more importantly the level of prices relative to incomes.

Also raised costs of data center construction.

bls.gov/news.release/p…

Energy another complexity but the data is suggesting that inflation was not only accelerating but seeing the pipeline ahead and heading into the war in the Middle East.

There is some very worrisome inflation in the pipeline. Hottest numbers since searing inflation of 2022. Should give the Federal Reserve even more pause. Sets up waves of inflation in goods and services ex energy costs.

🔥Import & export prices outside of oil were hot in February. Note import prices DO NOT include tariffs.

Big increases in capital equipment, with computers & semiconductors rising rapidly with chip costs accelerating. Those affect a lot of other goods.

Sorry, meant to tag @nickbloom.bsky.social and Steve Davis.

Been raising this at my speeches. We are a world that is aging, more rapidly than some expected in certain countries. Many countries have tried ways to coax and incentivize people to have more… | Dian... Been raising this at my speeches. We are a world that is aging, more rapidly than some expected in certain countries. Many countries have tried ways to coax and incentivize people to have more childre...

Here is my linked in post with the paper. It is heartening to know the data supports the payoffs of sharing time with those we care most in this world.

www.linkedin.com/posts/dianes...

WFH boosts productivity and reproduction. Yes, it boosts fertility rates and has garnered attention by policymakers who are struggling with aging demographics.

thank you and your amazing authors for the rich body of work from home research.

Here is a new paper I have been following the emergence of since I saw Nick in a video talking with policy makers in the UK.