The Hamrick Brief | Mark Hamrick Welcome to the debut of The Hamrick Brief: Making sense of the economy — for the life you're actually living. Clear analysis, historical context, and something you can use.

It's launch day. And what a time to launch a newsletter about the economy. 😅
If you're wondering what the news means for the life you're actually living, that's exactly what The Hamrick Brief is for.
Issue 1 is live on LinkedIn and Substack. Link in comments. 🙏
thehamrickbrief.substack.com/p/the…

#economy #jobsreport #inflation #recessionwatch #hamrickisms | Mark Hamrick 🚨 March Jobs Preview: When "Growth" Doesn't Feel Like Growth As we look toward Friday’s March employment report, the data is expected to show a modest gain of about 55,000 jobs added to payrolls. On ...

Will jobs be added or lost in the March employment report due this week? My take:
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From Torsten Slok, chief economist, Apollo:
For every $5 the U.S. government collects in taxes, $1 goes toward paying interest on the debt.

Our Bankrate weekly average for the 30-year fixed rate mortgage is up to 6.44%, the highest since last September and up from last week's 6.27%. This is another cost of the war, reflecting the reality of surging inflation and coincidentally rising Treasury yields.
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Some months confirm what many households are already feeling. This was one of them. February’s employment report missed the mark across the board. Payrolls declined by 92,000 jobs and the… | Mark Ham... Some months confirm what many households are already feeling. This was one of them. February’s employment report missed the mark across the board. Payrolls declined by 92,000 jobs and the unemploymen...

Using a four-letter word to describe this morning's jobs report: Ugly. And it's consistent with a pattern of weakening and instability seen over the past year.
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AI is simultaneously aiding and replacing workers, wage data suggest Artificial intelligence’s impact on the labor market will depend on whether the technology automates or augments worker tasks.

AI isn’t widely wiping out jobs, but it is making it tougher for some entry-level workers. Early data show hiring is slowing in AI-heavy fields, especially for young grads. Wages are rising for experienced workers, replace routine tasks and boost seasoned pros. www.dallasfed.org/research/eco...

Inflation made further progress in January — but affordability challenges remain very much alive. As a reminder, the Consumer Price Index -- the main gauge of prices at the retail level -- is up 26%… ... Inflation made further progress in January — but affordability challenges remain very much alive. As a reminder, the Consumer Price Index -- the main gauge of prices at the retail level -- is up 26% s...

What the latest data on inflation does -- and does not tell us. Hint: Affordability challenges remain very much alive.
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Bankrate’s 2025 Jobs & Pay Report | Bankrate | Mark Hamrick JOLTS and Challenger are telling a similar story: fewer “help wanted” signs, and more companies talking about cuts. New reads on the job market this week are pointing in the same direction. The econo...

Job market data out today is roundly downbeat. Next week, we'll get the January employment report, which will be key:
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Bankrate’s Interest Rate Forecast For 2026 | Bankrate | Mark Hamrick You know the saying about we don’t know the value of some things until they’re no longer part of our lives. The great singer-songwriter Joni Mitchell captured it well in her song “Big Yellow Taxi” wit...

What's the outlook for interest rates in 2026? Our team at Bankrate has done the work to help you make sense of it all, affecting the economy, borrowing and savings rates:
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Time to gear down for Winter Break (a RedVentures benefit) to spend time with family. Wishing you a peaceful holiday season and a healthy, happy and prosperous 2026! 🎄❤️🥂

Fewer Americans Expect Financial Improvement In 2026, Survey Finds | Bankrate Bankrate’s Financial Outlook Survey finds fewer Americans expect their finances to improve in 2026, with inflation, income stagnation and debt driving pessimism.

Happy New Year? Not exactly. A record 32% of Americans say they expect their finances to get worse in 2026, per Bankrate's Financial Outlook Survey. Inflation and politics are driving the pessimism. Read more: www.bankrate.com/banking/fina...

Markets Eye Jackson Hole: Powell in Focus | Mark Hamrick Markets Eye Jackson Hole: Powell in Focus The week ahead for markets and the economy is all about Jackson Hole and the annual conference of central bankers there. The Federal Reserve’s annual economi...

What to watch with the economy this week: Fed Chairman Jerome Powell delivers an eagerly awaited speech as investors bet the central bank is ready to cut interest rates in Sept. Also due, Fed meeting minutes and housing market data.
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Here's where the jobs are in this slowing economy July's much weaker-than-expected job growth was supported primarily by the health-care sector, data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics released Friday shows.

The July employment report indicates that job growth has slowed over the past month. I spoke with CNBC about what this says about the job market and why there might be a bumpy road ahead. www.cnbc.com/2025/08/01/h...

Almost two thirds of Americans have at least one ‘negative view’ about tipping, survey finds Are you tired of tipping at the self-checkout? You’re not alone. Consumer Investigator Rachel DePompa talks to Bankrate about tip fatigue and where your gratuities actually matter.

When do you think it’s appropriate to tip? My teammate Ted Rossman spoke with InvestigateTV about Bankrate’s newest Tipping Survey and why people think tipping culture is out of control. www.investigatetv.com/2025/07/28/g...

The job market continues to cool — but not collapse. | Mark Hamrick The job market continues to cool — but not collapse. New government data (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary, or JOLTS) shows job openings dipped to 7.4 million in June, well below expectations....

What was once a red-hot job market is now cautious and continuing to cool. Here's more on the latest JOLTS numbers, including job openings and hiring.
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With nearly half of workers planning to look for a new job in the year ahead, now is the time to prepare — not just react. | Mark Hamrick With nearly half of workers planning to look for a new job in the year ahead, now is the time to prepare — not just react. A new Bankrate survey finds that nearly half of those in the workforce expec...

A new Bankrate survey finds nearly half of American workers say they're likely to look for a new job in the next 12 months.
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A new Bankrate economist survey outlines challenges ahead associated with a slower job market, persistent inflation, and tariffs.
www.bankrate.com/banking/fede...

Be careful — and hydrated— out there!

Survey: The Majority Of Americans Believe Tariffs Will Worsen Their Personal Finances | Bankrate Even across party lines, Americans are more likely to believe that higher import taxes on imported goods will worsen their finances, not improve them.

Americans don't agree on many things, but a majority fear that tariffs will have a negative impact on their personal finances. Here's more on our Bankrate survey:
www.bankrate.com/banking/savi...

The latest consumer sentiment report from the University of Michigan reveals the first increase this year. | Mark Hamrick The latest consumer sentiment report from the University of Michigan reveals the first increase this year. The index rose to 60.5 in June coming after the index remained unchanged at 52.2 in May, and ...

Univ of Michigan consumer sentiment rises for the first time this year. What are consumers thinking and feeling and what are the risks for the outlook?

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The old adage urges us not to judge a book by its cover. The same might… | Mark Hamrick The old adage urges us not to judge a book by its cover. The same might hold true for the May jobs report. On the surface, the unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%. The number of jobs added 139k wa...

Why the May jobs report deserves more than the proverbial quick read. My take on the blemishes beneath the surface.
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Based on Institute for Supply Management (ISM) surveys of services and manufacturing sectors, tariff risks are coming home to roost. Prices paid are surging, and new orders are contracting. Higher inflation and slower economic growth are being observed.

The latest JOLTS report indicates a rise in job openings to nearly 7.4… | Mark Hamrick The latest JOLTS report indicates a rise in job openings to nearly 7.4 million at the end of April, surpassing expectations, while hires increased to 5.6 million. Interestingly, slightly fewer employe...

Latest data: Job openings, hires rise at the end of April. Fewer people quit their jobs. My take:
www.linkedin.com/posts/markha...

Survey: More Than Two-Thirds of Americans Aren’t Budgeting. Here’s Why You… | Mark Hamrick "The Big Kahuna" among this week's economic reports is the May employment reading due Friday morning from the Labor Department. One feature of the U.S. economy has been its resilience i...

What to watch in this week's monthly jobs report: My take.
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Contrary to what President Trump and Elon Musk have said at this Oval Office press availability, The New York Times has not been forced to return its 2018 Pulitzer Prize for National Reporting.

On the Campaign Trail, Elon Musk Juggled Drugs and Family Drama

The story that Musk interrupted and kept a Fox reporter from asking about today. Free link: www.nytimes.com/2025/05/30/u...

First-Time Homebuyer Guide | Bankrate | Mark Hamrick Now that the April sales figures are in, are we seeing a tale of two markets: New versus existing home sales? Let's take a look at what's happening. April new home sales rose 10.8% month-ove...

New home sales rise, while existing home sales decline. What's going on? www.linkedin.com/posts/markha...

Live updates: Judge blocks Trump's executive order to shut down the Education Department House Republicans stayed up all night to pass their multitrillion-dollar tax breaks package, with Speaker Mike Johnson defying the skeptics and unifying his ranks to muscle President Donald Trump’s priority bill to approval.

BREAKING: A judge blocks President Trump's executive order to shut down the Education Department. Follow live updates.

This looks like the spring home-selling season that wasn’t. The National… | Mark Hamrick This looks like the spring home-selling season that wasn’t. The National Association of Realtors says sales of previously owned homes fell 0.5% in April from the previous month and were down 2% from ...

Home sales drop again, prices edge up and the supply of homes for sale rises to the most in five years. www.linkedin.com/posts/markha...

10 downside risks for the U.S. economy per Torsten Slok, Chief Economist, Apollo.