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#Complexsystems

Latest posts tagged with #Complexsystems on Bluesky

Posts tagged #Complexsystems

“The parts you experience most directly are furthest from the source. What feels most real emerged last.”
— TIFEO
#TIFEO #Philosophy #Consciousness #EmergenceTheory #ComplexSystems

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🧪 On This Day — 8 April 1904
Born: John Hicks, Nobel laureate whose work influenced mathematical economics and modelling systems used in data science today.#NITheCS #Mathematics #Economics #ComplexSystems

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An event flyer for the Wednesdays @ NICO spring seminar series, starting on April 8, 2026 through May 20, 2026.

An event flyer for the Wednesdays @ NICO spring seminar series, starting on April 8, 2026 through May 20, 2026.

Announcing our spring seminar speakers! Starting April 8th, we are excited to host an interdisciplinary set of talks by researchers from Pitt, CMU, Northwestern, CVG, Leibniz Institute, and UPenn.

Join us each Wed at 12pm US Central: bit.ly/WedatNICO

#WedatNICO #ComplexSystems #DataScience #AI

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CCS 2026: The 2026 Conference on Complex Systems @ Binghamton, NY, USA

Super excited that we will be hosting the 2026 Conference on #ComplexSystems in Binghamton. Our campus has a foundational history in the field, and we are delighted to welcome back the community this October. Abstract submission deadline: May 1, 2026.
ccs26.cssociety.org

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Structural Compression as an Early Warning Signal: The Compression–Response Transition Index (CRTI) for Mechanism-Specific Critical Transitions This paper introduces a mechanism-specific early warning framework for critical transitions in complex systems based on the concept of structural compression. While classical early warning signals (EW...

What if systems don’t collapse because variance rises …

but because they silently lose their degrees of freedom?

My new preprint shows that structural compression can act as an early warning signal precisely where classical #EWS fail.

doi.org/10.5281/zeno... #CRTI #ComplexSystems #EWS 🖖

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Structural Compression as an Early Warning Signal: The Compression–Response Transition Index (CRTI) for Mechanism-Specific Critical Transitions This paper introduces a mechanism-specific early warning framework for critical transitions in complex systems based on the concept of structural compression. While classical early warning signals (EW...

Was, wenn Systeme nicht kollabieren, weil die Varianz steigt – sondern weil sie still ihre Freiheitsgrade verlieren?
Mein neues Preprint zeigt, dass strukturelle Kompression ein Frühwarnsignal sein kann – gerade dort, wo klassische EWS versagen.
🔗 doi.org/10.5281/zeno... #CRTI #ComplexSystems #EWS 🖖

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Structural Compression as an Early Warning Signal: The Compression–Response Transition Index (CRTI) for Mechanism-Specific Critical Transitions This paper introduces a mechanism-specific early warning framework for critical transitions in complex systems based on the concept of structural compression. While classical early warning signals (EW...

Was, wenn #Systeme nicht kollabieren, …

weil die Varianz steigt …

sondern weil sie still ihre Freiheitsgrade verlieren? Mein neues Preprint zeigt …

Der #CRTI erzeugt verlässliche Signale bevor andere #EWS reagieren.

🔗 doi.org/10.5281/zeno... #CRTI #ComplexSystems #EWS 🖖

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Case study: Using fault tree analysis in a rail failure investigation - Engineering Professors Council Material failure analysis using systems thinking.

Our #ComplexSystemsToolkit teaching resource “Using fault tree analysis in a rail failure investigation” explores rail accident investigation and material failure analysis using systems thinking: epc.ac.uk/toolkit/case...

#ComplexSystems #SystemsThinking #Engineering #Engineer #Education

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Most early warning signals assume collapse shows up as rising variance or autocorrelation.
But what if that's only true for one class of mechanisms?
The Compression-Response Transition Index
(CRTI) introduces a mechanism-specific approach:
it combines recovery dynamics (R) with covariance geometry (Ф) and includes an explicit validity condition (Structural-Dynamic
Separability, SDS).
Result: early warning signals that appear before classical indicators -
and correctly disappear when the mechanism assumption is violated.
Preprint (open access): https://doi.org/10.5281/
zenodo.19422149
#CRTI #ComplexSystems #EarlyWarningSignals #NonlinearDynamics #SystemsScience🖖

Most early warning signals assume collapse shows up as rising variance or autocorrelation. But what if that's only true for one class of mechanisms? The Compression-Response Transition Index (CRTI) introduces a mechanism-specific approach: it combines recovery dynamics (R) with covariance geometry (Ф) and includes an explicit validity condition (Structural-Dynamic Separability, SDS). Result: early warning signals that appear before classical indicators - and correctly disappear when the mechanism assumption is violated. Preprint (open access): https://doi.org/10.5281/ zenodo.19422149 #CRTI #ComplexSystems #EarlyWarningSignals #NonlinearDynamics #SystemsScience🖖

Bernd von Mallinckrodt
@vonmallinck... • jetzt
CRTI = R /Ф couples recovery dynamics with covariance geometry ...
and detects fold-type transitions earlier while correctly failing outside its domain.
Preprint (open access): doi.org/10.5281/zeno...
#CRTI #ComplexSystems #EarlyWarningSignals #NonlinearDynamics #EWS #SystemsScience
Compression-Response Transition Index
(CRTI): A Mechanism-Specific Early Warning Signal for Fold-Type Critical Transitions
This preprint introduces the Compression-Response Transition Index (CRTI), a bivariate early warning signal designed for detecting fold-type critical transitions in multivariate dynamical systems. The...🖖

Bernd von Mallinckrodt @vonmallinck... • jetzt CRTI = R /Ф couples recovery dynamics with covariance geometry ... and detects fold-type transitions earlier while correctly failing outside its domain. Preprint (open access): doi.org/10.5281/zeno... #CRTI #ComplexSystems #EarlyWarningSignals #NonlinearDynamics #EWS #SystemsScience Compression-Response Transition Index (CRTI): A Mechanism-Specific Early Warning Signal for Fold-Type Critical Transitions This preprint introduces the Compression-Response Transition Index (CRTI), a bivariate early warning signal designed for detecting fold-type critical transitions in multivariate dynamical systems. The...🖖

Bernd von Mallinckrodt V @vonmallinck... • jetzt What if collapse doesn't begin with rising variance
•••
but with a system quietly losing its degrees of freedom?
The Compression-Response Transition Index
(#CRTI) shows that early warning signals can emerge from structural compression long before classical indicators react.🖖

Bernd von Mallinckrodt V @vonmallinck... • jetzt What if collapse doesn't begin with rising variance ••• but with a system quietly losing its degrees of freedom? The Compression-Response Transition Index (#CRTI) shows that early warning signals can emerge from structural compression long before classical indicators react.🖖

What if collapse doesn’t start with rising variance?

CRTI (R̂/Φ) recovery dynamics with covariance geometry …

mechanism-specific, with a clear validity condition (SDS).

Earlier signals for fold transitions. No false positives outside its domain.

doi.org/10.5281/zeno...

#CRTI #ComplexSystems 🖖

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Compression–Response Transition Index (CRTI): A Mechanism-Specific Early Warning Signal for Fold-Type Critical Transitions This preprint introduces the Compression–Response Transition Index (CRTI), a bivariate early warning signal designed for detecting fold-type critical transitions in multivariate dynamical systems. The...

CRTI = R̂ / Φ couples recovery dynamics with covariance geometry …

and detects fold-type transitions earlier while correctly failing outside its domain.
Preprint (open access): doi.org/10.5281/zeno... 🖖

#CRTI #ComplexSystems #EarlyWarningSignals #NonlinearDynamics #EWS #SystemsScience 🖖

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From Dyads to Networks - Architectural Scaling of Symbiotic Intelligence English This conceptual framework paper introduces the concept of Networked Symbiotic Intelligence, extending the theoretical model of Symbiotic Intelligence from individual human–AI dyadic interactio...

Drift in AI interaction is not an error.
It is a structural property of probabilistic systems.

Alignment does not remove drift.
It operates within it.

doi.org/10.5281/zeno...

#AIAlignment #HumanAI #ComplexSystems

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Diagram showing a human and an AI system facing each other, connected by an oscillating wave that represents interaction. The graphic highlights alignment as a dynamic process, with temporary stabilization patterns and ongoing drift, shifting the focus from aligning AI to stabilizing interaction.

Diagram showing a human and an AI system facing each other, connected by an oscillating wave that represents interaction. The graphic highlights alignment as a dynamic process, with temporary stabilization patterns and ongoing drift, shifting the focus from aligning AI to stabilizing interaction.

Alignment isn’t a fixed property of AI systems.

It emerges and destabilizes within interaction.

What we call “alignment” is a temporary stabilization under continuous drift. Asymmetry matters. Focus shifts to stabilizing interaction.

#AIAlignment #HumanAI #ComplexSystems #HumanAIInteraction

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Structural Compression as an Early Warning Signal Beyond Critical Slowing Down Early warning signals (EWS) for critical transitions are traditionally based on dynamical indicators such as rising variance and autocorrelation, commonly associated with the phenomenon of critical sl...

Wir messen #Krisen an dem, was sichtbar eskaliert …

aber was, wenn das Entscheidende längst unsichtbar verloren ging?

Beginnt Kollaps vielleicht dort, wo ein System leise seine Freiheitsgrade verliert?

doi.org/10.5281/zeno...

#CRTI #ComplexSystems #EWS 🖖

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Structural Compression as an Early Warning Signal Beyond Critical Slowing Down Early warning signals (EWS) for critical transitions are traditionally based on dynamical indicators such as rising variance and autocorrelation, commonly associated with the phenomenon of critical sl...

Ein #System, das nur funktioniert, solange nichts schiefgeht, ist nicht stabil …

es ist bereits im Kollapsmodus.

Gilt das nicht auch für Märkte, Organisationen und ganze Gesellschaften?

doi.org/10.5281/zeno...

#CRTI #ComplexSystems #EWS 🖖

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Structural Compression as an Early Warning Signal Beyond Critical Slowing Down Early warning signals (EWS) for critical transitions are traditionally based on dynamical indicators such as rising variance and autocorrelation, commonly associated with the phenomenon of critical sl...

Was, wenn Systeme nicht kollabieren, weil etwas passiert …

sondern weil sie vorher aufgehört haben, sich anzupassen?

Wenn der eigentliche Frühindikator nicht Lärm, sondern stille strukturelle Verengung ist …

worauf schauen wir eigentlich?

doi.org/10.5281/zeno...

#CRTI #ComplexSystems #EWS 🖖

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If early warning signals depend on how we observe a system, are we detecting the system …

or our projection of it?

Maybe the real signal is not noise, but the structure we fail to see.

#CRTI #ComplexSystems #EWS 🖖

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Structural Compression as an Early Warning Signal Beyond Critical Slowing Down Early warning signals (EWS) for critical transitions are traditionally based on dynamical indicators such as rising variance and autocorrelation, commonly associated with the phenomenon of critical sl...

Maybe collapse doesn’t start when systems become unstable …

but when they quietly lose their degrees of freedom.

DOI: doi.org/10.5281/zeno...
#CRTI #ComplexSystems 🖖

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Structural Compression as an Early Warning Signal Beyond Critical Slowing Down Early warning signals (EWS) for critical transitions are traditionally based on dynamical indicators such as rising variance and autocorrelation, commonly associated with the phenomenon of critical sl...

Maybe collapse doesn’t start when systems become unstable …

but when they quietly lose their degrees of freedom.

DOI: doi.org/10.5281/zeno...
#CRTI #ComplexSystems 🖖

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Improving metal recycling and recycled content intake - Engineering Professors Council Towards a circular economy.

Our #ComplexSystemsToolkit guidance article “Improving metal recycling and recycled content intake” explores the development of systems-based interventions in taking steps towards a circular economy.

epc.ac.uk/toolkit/impr...

#ComplexSystems #SystemsThinking #Sustainability #Education #Teaching

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Original post on discuss.systems

why should you give a fuck about this niche ass, inaccessible sophistry?

because that is the way to go on about understanding phenomena in #complexsystems. it is by far not the only way to think about it, systems science is wast and diverse. but it is a good start.

and when you want criticize […]

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Important announcement from our lab.

Since the character limit here is a bit tight, I’ve attached a screenshot with the full details from our LinkedIn post.

#ComplexSystems #AI #Emergence

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New research reframes cities as scaling systems with universal laws, linking size to productivity and inequality. Math meets urban life.

arxiv.org/abs/2603.300...

#ComplexSystems #UrbanScience #Cities

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Original post on discuss.systems

nate and the others are right when they say: "no one is driving the bus". there is not a single root cause, or even a comprehensible combination of root causes, to any of this, you can simply "address" and let it RIP. sure, first we must accept the complex systems nature of it all. but once you […]

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THE FRACTALS OF FINANCE | Research Series Phase 2 | Episode 2 of 9 - ATS Trading The Coupled Spectrum Sixty-eight markets. One system. The coupling never switches off. Episode 1 proved that the near-zero autocorrelation is a lie. Beneath it, every market oscillates between periods...

The Coupling Never Switches Off

Markets don't suddenly synchronise during crises.

They were always coupled. The crisis just moved where on the spectrum they sat.

Episode 2 is live. atstradingsolutions.com/the-fractals...

#TheFractalsOfFinance #TrendFollowing #ComplexSystems #QuantitativeFinance

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Structural Compression in Discrete Preference Systems: An Information-Theoretic Analysis of Automobile Color Distribution (1990–2020) This preprint presents an information-theoretic analysis of automobile exterior color distributions from 1990 to 2020 as a proxy for structural compression in a discrete sociotechnical preference syst...

We didn’t lose colors.
We stopped using them.

What if this isn’t taste …

but a measurable collapse of choice?

doi.org/10.5281/zeno... #CRTI #complexsystems 🖖

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Belgrade School of Complex Systems 2026 The Belgrade School on Complex Systems (BeComplex 2026) is an international workshop organized by the Faculty of Physics at the University of Belgrade. It is scheduled to take place from June 21 to Ju...

Belgrade School of Complex Systems 2026

Application deadline: April 11

#BeComplex2026 #School #ComplexSystems #Transdiciplinary ./6

www.complexitycat.org/posts/belgra...

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Geometry, Observability, and the Limits of Early Warning Signals in Complex Systems: A Dissertation Summary This dissertation summary presents a theoretical framework addressing a persistent limitation in the detection of critical transitions in complex systems. Classical early warning signals (EWS), such a...

Early warning signals don’t always fail because of noise …

sometimes they’re simply invisible.

A structural detectability limit: alignment determines what we can see. doi.org/10.5281/zeno... #ComplexSystems #EWS 🖖

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Geometry, Observability, and the Limits of Early Warning Signals in Complex Systems: A Dissertation Summary This dissertation summary presents a theoretical framework addressing a persistent limitation in the detection of critical transitions in complex systems. Classical early warning signals (EWS), such a...

If early warning signals fail, is it really noise …

or the geometry of observation?

A dissertation summary shows: signals vanish when alignment is lost. doi.org/10.5281/zeno... #ComplexSystems #EWS #CriticalTransitions 🖖

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Geometry-Driven Failure of Early Warning Signals: A Detectability Bound Under Projection Early warning signals (EWS) of critical transitions—such as rising variance and autocorrelation—are widely used to anticipate abrupt changes in complex systems. However, their empirical performance is...

If early warning signals fail, is it noise — or geometry?

A detectability bound shows: signals vanish when alignment is lost.

doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19329813 #EWS #ComplexSystems 🖖

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Can plasticity -a system’s capacity for change- be quantified before change occurs?

Plasticity is here formalized as a priori network quantity, reframing it as a prospective, predictive tool for complex systems

Comments welcome
📂 arxiv.org/abs/2603.25180

#ComplexSystems #Plasticity #Neuroscience

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