“The parts you experience most directly are furthest from the source. What feels most real emerged last.”
— TIFEO
#TIFEO #Philosophy #Consciousness #EmergenceTheory #ComplexSystems
Latest posts tagged with #Complexsystems on Bluesky
“The parts you experience most directly are furthest from the source. What feels most real emerged last.”
— TIFEO
#TIFEO #Philosophy #Consciousness #EmergenceTheory #ComplexSystems
🧪 On This Day — 8 April 1904
Born: John Hicks, Nobel laureate whose work influenced mathematical economics and modelling systems used in data science today.#NITheCS #Mathematics #Economics #ComplexSystems
An event flyer for the Wednesdays @ NICO spring seminar series, starting on April 8, 2026 through May 20, 2026.
Announcing our spring seminar speakers! Starting April 8th, we are excited to host an interdisciplinary set of talks by researchers from Pitt, CMU, Northwestern, CVG, Leibniz Institute, and UPenn.
Join us each Wed at 12pm US Central: bit.ly/WedatNICO
#WedatNICO #ComplexSystems #DataScience #AI
Super excited that we will be hosting the 2026 Conference on #ComplexSystems in Binghamton. Our campus has a foundational history in the field, and we are delighted to welcome back the community this October. Abstract submission deadline: May 1, 2026.
ccs26.cssociety.org
What if systems don’t collapse because variance rises …
but because they silently lose their degrees of freedom?
My new preprint shows that structural compression can act as an early warning signal precisely where classical #EWS fail.
doi.org/10.5281/zeno... #CRTI #ComplexSystems #EWS 🖖
Was, wenn Systeme nicht kollabieren, weil die Varianz steigt – sondern weil sie still ihre Freiheitsgrade verlieren?
Mein neues Preprint zeigt, dass strukturelle Kompression ein Frühwarnsignal sein kann – gerade dort, wo klassische EWS versagen.
🔗 doi.org/10.5281/zeno... #CRTI #ComplexSystems #EWS 🖖
Was, wenn #Systeme nicht kollabieren, …
weil die Varianz steigt …
sondern weil sie still ihre Freiheitsgrade verlieren? Mein neues Preprint zeigt …
Der #CRTI erzeugt verlässliche Signale bevor andere #EWS reagieren.
🔗 doi.org/10.5281/zeno... #CRTI #ComplexSystems #EWS 🖖
Our #ComplexSystemsToolkit teaching resource “Using fault tree analysis in a rail failure investigation” explores rail accident investigation and material failure analysis using systems thinking: epc.ac.uk/toolkit/case...
#ComplexSystems #SystemsThinking #Engineering #Engineer #Education
Most early warning signals assume collapse shows up as rising variance or autocorrelation. But what if that's only true for one class of mechanisms? The Compression-Response Transition Index (CRTI) introduces a mechanism-specific approach: it combines recovery dynamics (R) with covariance geometry (Ф) and includes an explicit validity condition (Structural-Dynamic Separability, SDS). Result: early warning signals that appear before classical indicators - and correctly disappear when the mechanism assumption is violated. Preprint (open access): https://doi.org/10.5281/ zenodo.19422149 #CRTI #ComplexSystems #EarlyWarningSignals #NonlinearDynamics #SystemsScience🖖
Bernd von Mallinckrodt @vonmallinck... • jetzt CRTI = R /Ф couples recovery dynamics with covariance geometry ... and detects fold-type transitions earlier while correctly failing outside its domain. Preprint (open access): doi.org/10.5281/zeno... #CRTI #ComplexSystems #EarlyWarningSignals #NonlinearDynamics #EWS #SystemsScience Compression-Response Transition Index (CRTI): A Mechanism-Specific Early Warning Signal for Fold-Type Critical Transitions This preprint introduces the Compression-Response Transition Index (CRTI), a bivariate early warning signal designed for detecting fold-type critical transitions in multivariate dynamical systems. The...🖖
Bernd von Mallinckrodt V @vonmallinck... • jetzt What if collapse doesn't begin with rising variance ••• but with a system quietly losing its degrees of freedom? The Compression-Response Transition Index (#CRTI) shows that early warning signals can emerge from structural compression long before classical indicators react.🖖
What if collapse doesn’t start with rising variance?
CRTI (R̂/Φ) recovery dynamics with covariance geometry …
mechanism-specific, with a clear validity condition (SDS).
Earlier signals for fold transitions. No false positives outside its domain.
doi.org/10.5281/zeno...
#CRTI #ComplexSystems 🖖
CRTI = R̂ / Φ couples recovery dynamics with covariance geometry …
and detects fold-type transitions earlier while correctly failing outside its domain.
Preprint (open access): doi.org/10.5281/zeno... 🖖
#CRTI #ComplexSystems #EarlyWarningSignals #NonlinearDynamics #EWS #SystemsScience 🖖
Drift in AI interaction is not an error.
It is a structural property of probabilistic systems.
Alignment does not remove drift.
It operates within it.
doi.org/10.5281/zeno...
#AIAlignment #HumanAI #ComplexSystems
Diagram showing a human and an AI system facing each other, connected by an oscillating wave that represents interaction. The graphic highlights alignment as a dynamic process, with temporary stabilization patterns and ongoing drift, shifting the focus from aligning AI to stabilizing interaction.
Alignment isn’t a fixed property of AI systems.
It emerges and destabilizes within interaction.
What we call “alignment” is a temporary stabilization under continuous drift. Asymmetry matters. Focus shifts to stabilizing interaction.
#AIAlignment #HumanAI #ComplexSystems #HumanAIInteraction
Wir messen #Krisen an dem, was sichtbar eskaliert …
aber was, wenn das Entscheidende längst unsichtbar verloren ging?
Beginnt Kollaps vielleicht dort, wo ein System leise seine Freiheitsgrade verliert?
doi.org/10.5281/zeno...
#CRTI #ComplexSystems #EWS 🖖
Ein #System, das nur funktioniert, solange nichts schiefgeht, ist nicht stabil …
es ist bereits im Kollapsmodus.
Gilt das nicht auch für Märkte, Organisationen und ganze Gesellschaften?
doi.org/10.5281/zeno...
#CRTI #ComplexSystems #EWS 🖖
Was, wenn Systeme nicht kollabieren, weil etwas passiert …
sondern weil sie vorher aufgehört haben, sich anzupassen?
Wenn der eigentliche Frühindikator nicht Lärm, sondern stille strukturelle Verengung ist …
worauf schauen wir eigentlich?
doi.org/10.5281/zeno...
#CRTI #ComplexSystems #EWS 🖖
If early warning signals depend on how we observe a system, are we detecting the system …
or our projection of it?
Maybe the real signal is not noise, but the structure we fail to see.
#CRTI #ComplexSystems #EWS 🖖
Maybe collapse doesn’t start when systems become unstable …
but when they quietly lose their degrees of freedom.
DOI: doi.org/10.5281/zeno...
#CRTI #ComplexSystems 🖖
Maybe collapse doesn’t start when systems become unstable …
but when they quietly lose their degrees of freedom.
DOI: doi.org/10.5281/zeno...
#CRTI #ComplexSystems 🖖
Our #ComplexSystemsToolkit guidance article “Improving metal recycling and recycled content intake” explores the development of systems-based interventions in taking steps towards a circular economy.
epc.ac.uk/toolkit/impr...
#ComplexSystems #SystemsThinking #Sustainability #Education #Teaching
why should you give a fuck about this niche ass, inaccessible sophistry?
because that is the way to go on about understanding phenomena in #complexsystems. it is by far not the only way to think about it, systems science is wast and diverse. but it is a good start.
and when you want criticize […]
Important announcement from our lab.
Since the character limit here is a bit tight, I’ve attached a screenshot with the full details from our LinkedIn post.
#ComplexSystems #AI #Emergence
New research reframes cities as scaling systems with universal laws, linking size to productivity and inequality. Math meets urban life.
arxiv.org/abs/2603.300...
#ComplexSystems #UrbanScience #Cities
nate and the others are right when they say: "no one is driving the bus". there is not a single root cause, or even a comprehensible combination of root causes, to any of this, you can simply "address" and let it RIP. sure, first we must accept the complex systems nature of it all. but once you […]
The Coupling Never Switches Off
Markets don't suddenly synchronise during crises.
They were always coupled. The crisis just moved where on the spectrum they sat.
Episode 2 is live. atstradingsolutions.com/the-fractals...
#TheFractalsOfFinance #TrendFollowing #ComplexSystems #QuantitativeFinance
We didn’t lose colors.
We stopped using them.
What if this isn’t taste …
but a measurable collapse of choice?
doi.org/10.5281/zeno... #CRTI #complexsystems 🖖
Belgrade School of Complex Systems 2026
Application deadline: April 11
#BeComplex2026 #School #ComplexSystems #Transdiciplinary ./6
www.complexitycat.org/posts/belgra...
Early warning signals don’t always fail because of noise …
sometimes they’re simply invisible.
A structural detectability limit: alignment determines what we can see. doi.org/10.5281/zeno... #ComplexSystems #EWS 🖖
If early warning signals fail, is it really noise …
or the geometry of observation?
A dissertation summary shows: signals vanish when alignment is lost. doi.org/10.5281/zeno... #ComplexSystems #EWS #CriticalTransitions 🖖
If early warning signals fail, is it noise — or geometry?
A detectability bound shows: signals vanish when alignment is lost.
doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19329813 #EWS #ComplexSystems 🖖
Can plasticity -a system’s capacity for change- be quantified before change occurs?
Plasticity is here formalized as a priori network quantity, reframing it as a prospective, predictive tool for complex systems
Comments welcome
📂 arxiv.org/abs/2603.25180
#ComplexSystems #Plasticity #Neuroscience