If I'm a GOP member of Congress and I'm in this table, I would be worried about re-election — especially if Trump keeps doing what he's doing and I keep voting to let him www.gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-04-07...
The Iran ceasefire deal is obviously pretty bad for Trump and America, as others have pointed out. I have seen some people arguing that voters wanted a ceasefire, so Trump will get a ratings bounce from this. But I don't think you get a bounce for ending an unpopular war that you started
i think 4 articles in one day is a new record for me. you can support this work at gelliottmorris.com/subscribe
Also on YouTube, if that's your thing www.youtube.com/watch?v=g6q5...
Democrats just posted their biggest (in terms of math and political impact) election swings of the 2026 cycle in Wisconsin and Georgia www.gelliottmorris.com/p/democrats-...
The Democratic candidate in the Wisconsin Supreme Court race beat the polls by 13 percentage points. This follows an underestimation of Democrats in the 2025 statewide elections in Virginia and New Jersey. It's reasonable to question whether RV generic ballot polls are also underestimating Democrats
yeah
this was FASCINATING
(if ever there were a time to share my data with your member of congress, now would be that time)
NEW: Donald Trump is underwater with registered voters in **135** GOP-held House and Senate seats. His approval is <45% in 44, including 10 senators. Should be a warning for Republicans in Congress weighing electoral cost of Trump's war and crazy tweets.
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-04-07...
Yeah
Elliott focuses on the relative unimportance of moderation, which is important. But what self-described moderates *do* want a party to focus on is affordability and an anti-system agenda. The Democratic Party has focused a lot on the first, but seems to have largely neglected the latter
I guess now would be a good time for me to publish my data on Trump approval by congressional district 
yeah, that's good, i appreciate it
Moving political conflict "off-axis" is a very high-leverage way for Democrats to win more House and Senate seats
i agree with your thread! ;)
great tool
Trump's posts on Iran have gotten progressively worse over the last week (and that's really saying something), from "see you in hell" to "a whole civilization will die tonight." Where are Republicans in Congress? The simplest approx is that they are staying silent because they support this
New deep dive piece on 2 new big studies on ideology and moderation, including a data exclusive from Blue Rose Research. Short version: Only 8% of "moderates" say they want a moderate party. And when candidates do move to the middle, fx are often negative www.gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-04-07...
And the Strength In Numbers/Verasight poll was also on CNN earlier today! edition.cnn.com/2026/04/04/p...
New podcast is also on YouTube for people who prefer to watch there www.youtube.com/watch?v=XqCl...
New podcast with @joywilke.bsky.social of the data analytics company BlueLabs covering what new focus group interviews in Michigan tell us about economic anxiety, anti-system attitudes, and faith (or lack thereof) in the parties today. www.gelliottmorris.com/p/podcast-jo...
happening shortly
Join Mike Podhorzer and me live at 1pm as we discuss the latest polls on Iran, the midterms, regretful 2024 Trump voters and more
open.substack.com/live-stream/...
Have never had GOTV people come to my door in VA, but have had 3 canvassers now on the gerrymandering referendum
“I suppose I had some intuition for how bad it was, but jeez”
Too busy poasting about “Blueskyism” to read the academic research on X that has been coming out over the last few years? It has been bad for a while!!
"Finally, what really stands out about Trump’s trajectory is not just how low his approval is. It’s that it basically never bounces, either. Over 14 months, there hasn’t been a single sustained recovery in his overall approval rating."
From @gelliottmorris.com
When we polled 2024 Trump voters who now disapprove of the president and asked them why, the top three issues were prices/the economy, immigration, and his personality/conduct in office. We have come to expect insane tweets like this, but they are still taxing with normies
