#FX forecast - #medians from nearly 70 FX analysts polled March 27-April 1 showed the #euro holding its current $1.16 rate at end-April and end-June before strengthening about 2% to $1.18 in 6-months and another 2% to $1.20 in a year, chart @reuters.com www.reuters.com/markets/weal...
Scarred by the initial impacts of the Russia- #Ukraine war in 2022, the #ECB is signalling a low tolerance for upside inflation risk and European bond markets are now pricing in roughly 75bp of rate hikes, with more extreme scenarios extending beyond 100bp, chart #JPMorganAM
An outlook in which there is downside risk to the labor market and upside risk to inflation - There is a risk that firms' reluctance to hire could also persist and hold down job growth for longer, chart #Fed VC Philip N. Jefferson
www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/s...
#AI
The #technology is everywhere – The #laws are not
chart #quartz qz.com/tech-innovat...
#shipowners eye #Hormuz #ceasefire – more than 800 #vessels strapped in Strait of Hormuz, chart @bloomberg.com TV live
Yes, #Switzerland uses much less #natural gas than other countries to generate electricity. Yet, #administered prices have an unusually large weight in the #Swiss CPI, accounting for 25% of the CPI basket so that #profit -driven price development remains contained.
(must-read)
The modern #inflation is driven by corporations leveraging sellers’ inflation – in other words #profit -driven inflation - chart @keinewunder.de @fuwnews.bsky.social www.fuw.ch/warum-die-ez...
#IEA and Strategic #Oil Reserves
#Backwardation and its Economic Implications
acemaxxanalytics.substack.com/p/iea-and-st...
10y #Swiss Govt bond yield drops (15%) to 0.375% (SARON: -0.04%) - chart #investingcom www.investing.com/rates-bonds/...
#European #naturalgas plunged after the US and #Iran agreed to a 2-week #ceasefire that could temporarily reopen the vital Strait of #Hormuz …
#european #gas futures tumble on US #Iran ceasefire agreement -
10y Govt bond yields chart @bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
#euro area #inflation expectations:
5y5y breakeven rate, giving the bond market’s prediction of the average #inflation over the 5y period that starts 5y hence, remains below 2.0% ( #ECB ‘s target), chart @johnauthers.bsky.social
#ceasefire
#euro area 10y Govt bond yields fall and #ECB
#traders pare #ECB rate bets, price 53bp of #hike this year, chart #AnnaEdwards @bloombergTV live
CB policy rates, chart @reuters.com www.reuters.com/markets/cent...
+ as #China has moved up the value-added curve in exports of #EVs , #robots, #drones, #solarpanels and #windturbines , expansion in knowledge-intensive #service exports has followed. Each one of these products is highly digitalised and accompanied by an array of recurring #service requirements.
#China already ranks as the world’s 6th largest exporter of digitally delivered #services, up from 17th place in 2005, chart @financialtimes.com
www.ft.com/content/0f91...
#Bitcoin mining consumes more than 350 GWh of #electricity globally every day. #extrapolated over a year, that amounts to an incredible 128 terawatt-hours (TWh). This level of #consumption equals or exceeds the total annual electricity #demand of entire countries.
#Bitcoin #mining is becoming an #unprofitable business – notes Sylvia Walter @fuwnews.bsky.social www.fuw.ch/bitcoin-mini...
#wages are not exogenous. FX regimes shape adjustment asymmetrically. And "addressing domestic imbalances" in the #eurozone context has historically meant one thing: #austerity and #wage deflation for the weaker members
The paper's silence on #wage moderation and internal #devaluation is a striking omission. The #eurozone 's adjustment experience after 2010 is the most obvious case study: surplus positions in #Germany and the #Netherlands were not simply the product of virtuous "domestic #saving behaviour"
This is indeed the most problematic sentence in the piece; it ignores the fallacy of composition: if every #deficit country simultaneously tightens #fiscal policy and compresses domestic demand, and #surplus countries do nothing equivalent, the result is a global demand contraction.
If #policymakers believe the #backwardation will normalize (as the market implies it will), they can release #strategic #reserves now to suppress spot prices, then restock later at lower deferred prices — a genuine policy #arbitrage.
For the #food crisis dimension:
Since #fertilizers are made from natural #gas and #food is transported by #diesel, an #oil #backwardation shock propagates directly into food input costs — amplifying the #agricultural crisis in the near term especially.
#steep #backwardation is a reliable real-time indicator that physical markets are genuinely stressed — not just speculative froth. It reflects actual competition for barrels among buyers who need delivery now, chart #Claude
#Iran #war and #energy & #food crisis
crude #oil #Brent is in steep #backwardation
front contract ($111.33) surges while Dec 2026 ($81.28) is around $80 – chart @bloomberg.com TV live
#doodle
#Iran conflict and looming #deadlines
urgency pressure stress …
make #art not #war
