So... now we can breathe again. Let's talk about ScenarioMIP.
The final version is now up on GMD - and there's some changes since the first draft. /THREAD/
gmd.copernicus.org/articles/19/...
📰 #Press release: press.vub.ac.be/wind-and-sol...
@vubrussel.bsky.social @hydr-vub.bsky.social @paulmunoz.bsky.social @luispineda.bsky.social
👉 #Article available open-access at www.nature.com/articles/s44...
⚡ Wind and solar power are often criticised for their supposed lack of #reliability and low “capacity credit” in discussions surrounding #energytransitions and #clean #electricity. Our results counter that narrative.
💧 The seasonal nature of #wind and #solar energy would help extend the availability of #hydroelectric #power stations—thereby reducing, compared to the #crisis year of 2024:
- 📉 the #energy #deficit by 90%
- 📉 the peak #capacity #deficit by 50%.
Our research team (@hydr-vub.bsky.social and Universidad Yachay Tech) has made a surprising discovery: the deployment of wind 💨 and solar ☀️ power plants, at the scale of hundreds of MW, would substantially improve the #resilience of Ecuador’s electricity system in the face of #droughts
The closure of the Strait of #Hormuz is not the only #EnergyCrisis we have seen recently. In the drought-stricken year 2024, #Ecuador 🇪🇨 faced an unprecedented crisis of a different kind.
The country’s #hydropower reservoirs ran almost dry, & Ecuadorians had to endure #grid #blackouts for >12h a day
Ecuador could have prevented the massive impacts from hydropower drought it suffered in 2024 if it had gone all-in on wind-solar. Doing these investments now will prevent such damages from happening again in the near-future
Check out our latest paper led by Sebastian Sterl in @natwater.nature.com 🧵
@ulbruxelles.bsky.social @vubrussel.bsky.social @hydr-vub.bsky.social @rosapietroiusti.bsky.social @pik-potsdam.bsky.social
In our new paper in ERL @ioppublishing.bsky.social led by Diana Erazo, we combine An. stephensi records with climate data and epidemiological modelling in an impact attribution framework. We find that factors other than climate change contributed to the expansion range of An. stephensi in Africa
Climate change is leading to many impacts, but not every impact is caused by climate change. For example, we find limited evidence for the impact of climate change on the recent range expansion of the malaria vector Anopheles stephensi in the Horn of Africa
doi.org/10.1088/1748...
Not everything is the climate.
Malaria is surging — yes, as the climate changes, but also with conflict, displacement, and budget cuts.
And crucially: Anopheles stephensi, an invasive mosquito species is reclaiming urban areas where malaria was once eliminated.
iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...
Saudi Arabia, Russia and others yet again blocking progress on climate science ...
> IPCC: ‘Frustrating and disappointing’ meeting leaves AR7 timeline in deadlock
#climatecrisis
@carbonbrief.org
www.carbonbrief.org/ipcc-frustra...
The last 11 years were the hottest on record, which is unsurprising and worrying at the same time, because we don’t fully understand why.
Thread... 1/n
I don't think people fully appreciate how apocalyptic things are for US science. I haven't had any new funding since 2024, but I'm still ok since typical grants are for three years. This means next year I will be completely out of funding and will have to fire everyone in the lab. It's not great.
Time and time again surveys of heat pump owners show that the vast majority of people are happy with their heat pump.
Here's data from Canada, a place known for its very warm winters. cleanenergycanada.org/report/heat-...
🔥 PhD position alert ➡️ We are looking for a PhD candidate interested in studying spatially compounding fire risk and its drivers under climate change.
Details & applications👇
recruitingapp-5128.de.umantis.com/Vacancies/33...
In a new Nature study, we show that extreme global climate outcomes may occur even under moderate 2°C warming for several sectors.
The findings reinforce the urgency of limiting warming well below 2°C.
Together with @erichfischer.bsky.social @janasillmann.bsky.social @zscheischlerjak.bsky.social
PhD opportunity at KU Leuven
Antropogenic influences on East African high impact rainfall
Apply for this job no later than April 22, 2026
www.kuleuven.be/personeel/jo...
Co-supervision by Kwinten Van Weverberg Universiteit Gent and Remko Uijlenhoet TU Delft
Photo by Tai Pfeifer on Unsplash
two images describing the March heat wave, left a map showing temperature anomalies, right, the seasonal cycle and the anomalies this year
March in Western North America is deadly hot, completely above temperatures that would have been possible without climate change from burning oil, coal and gas. New record shatteringly rapid @wwattribution.bsky.social study www.worldweatherattribution.org/record-shatt...
Two technologies that competed for the future of heating and transport. The race is over.
In 2025, 19m heat pumps were sold globally. Hydrogen-ready boilers: 237 units. The picture in transport is identical.
21m electric vehicles were sold last year. Hydrogen fuel cell cars: roughly 10,000 units.
When I started working on UK energy in 2007, fossil fuels provided ~78% of electricity. Coal alone: 34%. Wind & solar: less than 2%.
Today: wind & solar 33%, fossil fuels 28%, coal 0%.
The chart below tells the story better than words can.
Electric vehicles avoided oil demand equivalent to 70% of #Iran’s exports in 2025 🚗⚡
Replacing imported oil used in transport with electric vehicles could reduce total global fossil fuel imports by a THIRD, saving around $600 billion per year.
🔗ember-energy.org/lat...
Heat pumps are the most efficient heating technology ever invented.
They harvest and compress pre existing heat in the air, ground or water and transport it where it is needed.
That energy is all around us. It does not have to pass through the Strait of Hormuz or any other geopolitical chokepoint.
Map showing surface weather station observations on 9th Feb 2026
Map showing surface weather station observations on 9th Mar 2026
Certainly not the most important issue with the current situation in the Middle East, but there is a new Iran shaped hole in our surface weather observation network.
In this example, measurements of surface pressure fed into operational weather forecasts: 9th Feb (left) and 9th Mar (right)
>1 Million observations from 37 stations across DRC were recently rescued by @derrickmuheki.bsky.social using MeteoSaver. The data has been uploaded to the @copernicusecmwf.bsky.social CDS and will be released from there in the next months. Derrick will present the data and its analysis at @egu.eu
4-year fully funded PhD position in 'Climate-related health impacts on children' @hydr-vub.bsky.social. Apply now:
jobs.vub.be/job/Elsene-P...
Klimaatverandering ging laatste 10 jaar sneller dan ooit tevoren. nieuwsartikel over de recente studie van G. Foster en @rahmstorf.bsky.social vrtnws.be/p.3B6vymp4e
Page 2 of letter by Daniel Swain. It begins: constructive suggestions regarding how the already remarkable institutional efficiency and societal impact of NCAR could be further enhanced through increased (not decreased) federal support in the years to come. Please note: To ensure the highest level of technical rigor, this response focuses exclusively on the core atmospheric and natural hazard science topics within the author’s primary domain of expertise; for this reason, I have omitted a response to Topic 4 (Space Weather)." NCAR weather modeling and atmospheric observing capabilities a) Management and operations of weather-related observational platforms, modeling and science as a stand-alone activity. The proposed management of weather-related research as a stand-alone activity is a scientifically regressive path that ignores the fundamental physical reality of the Earth system. Modern atmospheric science has demonstrated (largely, it is worth noting, due to groundbreaking researc
Page 3 of letter by Daniel Swain. It begins: b) Management and operations of weather-related observational platforms, modeling and science as combined with other NSF investments/facilities. The highly specialized nature of the NCAR-Wyoming Supercomputing Center (NWSC) infrastructure represents an extraordinary value proposition that cannot be replicated by combining it with more generalized NSF programs. The NWSC is not a generic high-performance computing (HPC) facility; it is a laboratory uniquely optimized for atmospheric science workflows, with a hardware and storage architecture specifically designed to handle the massive, high-bandwidth data demands of Earth system modeling. Furthermore, its model of providing an excellent, free-at-point-of-use technical support team ensures that the focus remains on the science rather than the overhead of systems administration. This centralized expertise allows individual researchers, smaller labs, and even entire universities—who would otherwi
Page 4 of letter by Daniel Swain. It begins: NCAR Mesa Lab (located in Boulder, Colorado) a/b) Ownership of the NSF NCAR Mesa Lab building for public and private use. Far more than just an office building, NSF NCAR Mesa Lab is an iconic and purpose-built facility designed specifically for the study of atmospheric science. Its position at the physical interface of the Rocky Mountain foothills and the Great Plains is a deliberate reflection of its mission, serving as a visible symbol—in an iconically American setting—of the federal government's enduring commitment to science in service of society. For many in the field, including myself, the Mesa Lab holds singular importance as a focal gathering point for the global atmospheric science community. My own early career exposure to weather and Earth system modeling, in fact, occurred within these walls, and I have long felt that the facility’s architecture and location inspire a necessary sense of awe regarding the atmosphere’s complexity a
Page 1 of letter by Daniel Swain. It begins: Dear Acting Director Stone and the NSF NCAR restructuring team: I am writing to provide a formal response to the Request for Information (RFI) regarding the proposed restructuring of the NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and its critical weather science infrastructure contained within the January 23, 2026 Dear Colleague Letter (DCL) entitled “NSF Intent to Restructure Critical Weather Infrastructure.” I submit these comments in my professional capacity as an atmospheric research scientist within the University of California, where my research focuses on the physics and dynamics of atmospheric processes related to extreme weather events and their role in shifting natural hazard and disaster risk. My perspective is informed by a public-sector career dedicated to bridging the gap between fundamental atmospheric research and real-world application in an academic context, with a particular focus on understanding and mitigating
I just submitted my letter to NSF responding to its proposal to dismantle the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). I argue that doing so would be an astonishing and avoidable misstep, and that federal support for the institution should in fact be *increased.* [1/4]
You will have access to unique training opportunities, will complete international secondments and will contribute to the development of a vibrant network of senior and emerging scientists