Your reminder that even if the war truly ended tonight, and Iran let every tanker sail through the Strait tomorrow, oil does not teleport, wells have been shut down and will take weeks or months to reopen, storage facilities have been destroyed, and refining capacity has been significantly damaged.
Latest Posts by Aaron Reichlin-Melnick
WHAT WE KNOW, 11pm:
—Liberals flip seat on Wisconsin supreme court.
—Also flip important school board seats in WI, OK, MO.
—Dems win Waukesha mayor race.
—GOP defends MTG's seat, but Dems way overperform.
—Big MO county rejects property tax freeze.
Sure sounds like an Iranian strategic victory.
TEHRAN-7 APRIL 2026 On behalf of the Islamic Republic of Iran, I express gratitude and appreciation for my dear brothers HE Prime Minister of Pakistan Sharif and HE Field Marshal Munir for their tireless efforts to end the war in the region. In response to the brotherly request of PM Sharif in his tweet, and considering the request by the U.S. for negotiations based on its 15-point proposal as well as announcement by POTUS about acceptance of the general framework of Iran's 10-point proposal as a basis for negotiations, I hereby declare on behalf of Iran's Supreme National Security Council: If attacks against Iran are halted, our Powerful Armed Forces will cease their defensive operations. For a period of two weeks, safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz will be possible via coordination with Iran's Armed Forces and with due consideration of technical limitations. Seyed Abbas Araghchi Minister of Foreign Affairs Islamic Republic of Iran
Statement from Aragachi on Twitter. Last sentence is key IMO.
By the standards of what else could have happened, this obviously counts as good news, but the good news these days consists of the US president backing down from a totally unprovoked genocidal threat he issued in the first place.
We’ll see what Iran says they agreed to.
🚨 TRUMP: “I agree to suspend the bombing and attack of Iran for a period of two weeks.”
2 week ceasefire:
Cap of Trump TS post
Trump: “I agree to suspend the bombing and attack of Iran for two weeks”
Vance has been trafficking in conspiracy slop for years - but this is another low. He accuses Ukrainian intelligence of interfering in both America’s and Hungary’s elections.
“This is just what they do,” Vance said.
Not it isn’t. This is what the Kremlin says they do.
A senior Gulf official says allies are completely in the dark on Trump’s plans.
“We have no idea what Trump is thinking.”
Source: Politico
Another ICE shooting! As always, we don't have all the facts in. We do have a dashcam, though. DHS claims, as it has during multiple prior shootings (claims at times proven false), that the person who was shot tried to "weaponize" his vehicle.
See for yourself (there are no visuals of the victim).
⚠️ BREAKING: Pakistan PM Sharif: Request Trump to extend Iran deadline for two weeks.
Israel believes a ceasefire is premature and expects military operations to continue for at least another month.-Politico
Again, I listened to this show. In this very program Tucker says he'd vote for Trump right now.
IRGC: Urgent Security Alert
We announce to residents and all those intending to cross the bridges shown in the image within the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Bahrain, that these areas will be designated as closed military zones starting at 11:00 PM Tehran time today until further notice.
ICE shot another person. Based on their track record, there is no reason to blindly believe and echo their claim that their victim was related to gangs.
They have routinely lied so, sadly, we need to routinely question their version of accounts.
www.ktvu.com/news/ice-sho...
And here’s the eclipse photo from Artemis II. I am in tears.
NEW: Historians sue over OLC opinion claiming that the Presidential Records Act is unconstitutional.
Suit seeks declaration that the PRA is constitutional—and an injunction to bar Trump from taking Presidential records at conclusion of his term in office.
storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us...
Yes, this would be acknowledgement of Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz and a complete reshaping of the geopolitical order of the Middle East in favor of Iran, an unambiguous Iranian victory in the war. It's a "deal" in the way a surrender is a deal.
To be clear, that's a *nominal* fresh all-time high, which outstrips the $144.22/bbl the global crude benchmark reached in 2008.
Obviously we've had a lot of inflation since then, so the 2008 high is more like $216/bbl in current dollars
Next onto the inflation-adjusted record?
There it is—Dated Brent (i.e., spot) crude hits $144.46/bbl, a new all-time high.
Just an outline drawn in crayon saying “you can’t prosecute Republicans.”
tell your mom not to fedpost either
Yes, and notably he is not actually charged with trafficking, even though the administration often refers to him as a “trafficker.” His only criminal charges are for smuggling.
Both books were released in 1959, and both still hold up today as haunting, which says something about how powerful they are.
This is such an excellent book and relic of the Cold War and the fears around nuclear warfare. It’s also a good one to read alongside Alas, Babylon, which isn’t *quite* so pessimistic.
Some real good news.