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Latest Posts by Aaron Reichlin-Melnick

Your reminder that even if the war truly ended tonight, and Iran let every tanker sail through the Strait tomorrow, oil does not teleport, wells have been shut down and will take weeks or months to reopen, storage facilities have been destroyed, and refining capacity has been significantly damaged.

7 hours ago 1277 377 49 8

WHAT WE KNOW, 11pm:

—Liberals flip seat on Wisconsin supreme court.
—Also flip important school board seats in WI, OK, MO.
—Dems win Waukesha mayor race.
—GOP defends MTG's seat, but Dems way overperform.
—Big MO county rejects property tax freeze.

7 hours ago 3140 818 40 41

Sure sounds like an Iranian strategic victory.

9 hours ago 364 53 15 1
TEHRAN-7 APRIL 2026
On behalf of the Islamic Republic of Iran, I express gratitude and appreciation for my dear brothers HE Prime Minister of Pakistan Sharif and HE Field Marshal Munir for their tireless efforts to end the war in the region.
In response to the brotherly request of PM Sharif in his tweet, and considering the request by the U.S. for negotiations based on its 15-point proposal as well as announcement by POTUS about acceptance of the general framework of Iran's 10-point proposal as a basis for negotiations, I hereby declare on behalf of Iran's Supreme National Security Council:
If attacks against Iran are halted, our Powerful Armed Forces will cease their defensive operations.
For a period of two weeks, safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz will be possible via coordination with Iran's Armed Forces and with due consideration of technical limitations.
Seyed Abbas Araghchi
Minister of Foreign Affairs Islamic Republic of Iran

TEHRAN-7 APRIL 2026 On behalf of the Islamic Republic of Iran, I express gratitude and appreciation for my dear brothers HE Prime Minister of Pakistan Sharif and HE Field Marshal Munir for their tireless efforts to end the war in the region. In response to the brotherly request of PM Sharif in his tweet, and considering the request by the U.S. for negotiations based on its 15-point proposal as well as announcement by POTUS about acceptance of the general framework of Iran's 10-point proposal as a basis for negotiations, I hereby declare on behalf of Iran's Supreme National Security Council: If attacks against Iran are halted, our Powerful Armed Forces will cease their defensive operations. For a period of two weeks, safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz will be possible via coordination with Iran's Armed Forces and with due consideration of technical limitations. Seyed Abbas Araghchi Minister of Foreign Affairs Islamic Republic of Iran

Statement from Aragachi on Twitter. Last sentence is key IMO.

11 hours ago 724 197 25 54

By the standards of what else could have happened, this obviously counts as good news, but the good news these days consists of the US president backing down from a totally unprovoked genocidal threat he issued in the first place.

11 hours ago 461 117 11 4

We’ll see what Iran says they agreed to.

11 hours ago 715 142 59 6
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🚨 TRUMP: “I agree to suspend the bombing and attack of Iran for a period of two weeks.”

11 hours ago 341 115 93 211
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2 week ceasefire:

11 hours ago 349 103 81 163
Cap of Trump TS post

Cap of Trump TS post

Trump: “I agree to suspend the bombing and attack of Iran for two weeks”

11 hours ago 2682 689 813 635
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Key quotes from Vance and Orban's news conference U.S. Vice President JD Vance lashed out on Tuesday at what he called "disgraceful" interference by the European Union in an election in Hungary, as he lauded Prime Minister Viktor Orban as an ally of ...

Vance has been trafficking in conspiracy slop for years - but this is another low. He accuses Ukrainian intelligence of interfering in both America’s and Hungary’s elections.

“This is just what they do,” Vance said.

Not it isn’t. This is what the Kremlin says they do.

11 hours ago 784 253 37 15
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A senior Gulf official says allies are completely in the dark on Trump’s plans.

“We have no idea what Trump is thinking.”

Source: Politico

12 hours ago 247 70 16 15

Another ICE shooting! As always, we don't have all the facts in. We do have a dashcam, though. DHS claims, as it has during multiple prior shootings (claims at times proven false), that the person who was shot tried to "weaponize" his vehicle.

See for yourself (there are no visuals of the victim).

12 hours ago 647 303 22 7
Claude Mythos Preview \ red.anthropic.com

New Claude found zero-day's in OpenBSD, ffmpeg, Linux and FreeBSD.

15 hours ago 373 48 24 30

⚠️ BREAKING: Pakistan PM Sharif: Request Trump to extend Iran deadline for two weeks.

15 hours ago 69 15 14 11

Israel believes a ceasefire is premature and expects military operations to continue for at least another month.-Politico

15 hours ago 160 38 17 12

Again, I listened to this show. In this very program Tucker says he'd vote for Trump right now.

15 hours ago 2722 542 65 21

IRGC: Urgent Security Alert

We announce to residents and all those intending to cross the bridges shown in the image within the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Bahrain, that these areas will be designated as closed military zones starting at 11:00 PM Tehran time today until further notice.

15 hours ago 241 90 7 10
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ICE shoots alleged gang member near California's I-5 freeway Immigration and Customs Enforcement officers on Tuesday shot a man they described as an alleged gang member wanted for murder in Patterson, Calif., leading to the partial closure of the I-5 freeway in...

ICE shot another person. Based on their track record, there is no reason to blindly believe and echo their claim that their victim was related to gangs.

They have routinely lied so, sadly, we need to routinely question their version of accounts.

www.ktvu.com/news/ice-sho...

15 hours ago 689 253 10 15
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And here’s the eclipse photo from Artemis II. I am in tears.

21 hours ago 5185 1124 30 65

NEW: Historians sue over OLC opinion claiming that the Presidential Records Act is unconstitutional.

Suit seeks declaration that the PRA is constitutional—and an injunction to bar Trump from taking Presidential records at conclusion of his term in office.

storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us...

16 hours ago 1366 509 21 21

Yes, this would be acknowledgement of Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz and a complete reshaping of the geopolitical order of the Middle East in favor of Iran, an unambiguous Iranian victory in the war. It's a "deal" in the way a surrender is a deal.

16 hours ago 306 41 4 0

To be clear, that's a *nominal* fresh all-time high, which outstrips the $144.22/bbl the global crude benchmark reached in 2008.

Obviously we've had a lot of inflation since then, so the 2008 high is more like $216/bbl in current dollars

Next onto the inflation-adjusted record?

16 hours ago 261 28 6 2
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There it is—Dated Brent (i.e., spot) crude hits $144.46/bbl, a new all-time high.

16 hours ago 1757 609 37 110

Just an outline drawn in crayon saying “you can’t prosecute Republicans.”

17 hours ago 915 180 13 1

tell your mom not to fedpost either

18 hours ago 134 27 3 3
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IEA chief: current oil and gas crisis worse than 1973, 1979, 2022 together The current oil and ‌gas crisis triggered by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is "more serious than the ones in 1973, ​1979 and 2022 together", Fatih Birol, the ​head of the International Energy A...

huh. is that a lot? www.reuters.com/business/ene...

17 hours ago 187 47 3 2
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Yes, and notably he is not actually charged with trafficking, even though the administration often refers to him as a “trafficker.” His only criminal charges are for smuggling.

17 hours ago 3 0 0 0

Both books were released in 1959, and both still hold up today as haunting, which says something about how powerful they are.

17 hours ago 1 0 1 0

This is such an excellent book and relic of the Cold War and the fears around nuclear warfare. It’s also a good one to read alongside Alas, Babylon, which isn’t *quite* so pessimistic.

17 hours ago 67 6 6 0

Some real good news.

17 hours ago 436 59 1 0