We traded the shock pattern posted yesterday:
Go short after the opening as this is a positive shock.
Reached a min.
Do not know what happens next.
Baseline Rini signal is a 🐻
Will trade again if OMXS30 approaches the Rini absolutes.
Wednesday 08.04.26.
Positive shock as US and Iran agree to a 2-week ceasefire mediated by Pakistan.
What matters is the Strait of Hormuz: Ships coming in and out.
#data #econometrics #economy #finsky #econsky #stocks #investing #trading #gold #silver #bitcoin #technicalanalysis
Correct.
There were negative shocks, i.e. in the direction of the Rini baseline signal.
Running the code for tomorrow.
#econometrics #data #economy #war #oil #investing #trading #technicalanalysis #finsky #stocks
What is this
Explosions on Kharg Island reportedly.
Free pattern:
When OMXS30 opens with a shock, the first move is in the opposite direction until it hits a min/max. After that do not know if it's a 🐂 or a 🐻
Holds this period - today as well.
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Tuesday 07.04.26.
The baseline Rini is a bear with an average target price ~2996:
Positive shock at opening from much lower than expected flash CPI estimates and considerable improvement in PMI services.
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We told you so.
"Trump Says He Will Finish the Job in Iran".
#war #Iran #investing #trading #gold #bitcoin #data #econometrics #technicalanalysis #economy #shock #finsky
www.wsj.com/opinion/dona...
Only 59% prediction success for the Rini in March.
Shocks are bad.
Expected after two months of stellar performance, though.
Working on predicting shocks.
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repercussions on EU member states from denying the US and Israel use of bases and airspace for the Iran war already.
The US seems likely to pull the plug on NATO (we can handle that).
In a sense, the US is at an indirect economic war with the EU as it hits our economies via the oil shock.
The latest is that the war should last a couple of weeks more.
The US does not care if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed - those affected should act (they are not going to clean up after their mess).
Statements are nice and create rallies but Rini Metrics remains focused on actions.
There are
Today we encounter a Rini setting that has not appeared before.
It's a first.
The day starts with a positive shock.
Positive shock before the European opening.
"Trump Tells Aides He’s Willing to End War Without Reopening Hormuz"
www.wsj.com/world/middle...
Brussels says Europeans should consider traveling less to avoid energy shortages
www.politico.eu/article/brus...
We need to skip posting predictions for a couple of days to avoid web scraping and reverse engineering as usual.
The US Treasury Secretary said what markets needed to hear.
The yield whisperer.
Fed member dismisses effect of higher oil prices on inflation (market participants react positively to that).
Reports that an alternative route to the Strait of Hormuz for transfering crude is on fire.
Btw, this is the positive shock we were expecting on Friday.
Positive shock from Potus' post that the US is in serious discussions with - reportedly - a new Iranian regime. Spike at about the Rini absolute max.
Followed by threats.
Rini Metrics calls bullshit on progress. It's pressure so that Iran opens the Strait of Hormuz.
Europe from the situation with oil and related products even if the war were to end today.
No friends of Potus here or of war but the US must finish the job now to return the Strait of Hormuz to its previous state. The US must rectify mistakes and normalize the world economy.
is complete already.
We have traded a bull and sold it already.
Without shocks later it should close around +.40%.
With shocks anything is possible.
We will not trade again unless the index reaches min/max of Rini intervals.
Notice that the bearish trend remains: We will have problems in
Monday 30.03.26.
The Rini produces a weak bull (probability 52%).
The setting did not change so Friday's signal repeats because it did not realize.
Weak signals are affected by news, momentum, sentiment, shocks, etc.
Here the positive sentiment from US futures plays a role.
We think the range
Fyi, last year the TACO came when the US 10Y reached 4.515 on April 9th.
Imho, seems to be a sensitive level for the US administration.
Let's see.
Reached -1.54%.
Close enough.
During days with shocks, trading the reversal when the index moves around the Rini absolutes is almost always profitable.
Re-evaluated this signal.
It's bull with 62% probability.
Types I and II buy while III and IV sell.
Categorized as wrong because we ignored the negative sentiment thinking a positive shock will arrive (shock analysis).
C'est la vie. Cannot be right all the time.
die than surrender (or admit it publicly).
Thus, we are looking at escalation.
News and headlines will probably drive movements this week again.
Seems to be a correct assessment.
Woke up to reports of the US thinking options of limited-time ground operations.
Makes sense: Why do they move troops in the area if not to deploy them?
Only for negotiation pressure?
Unlikely to work as the Iranian regime are hardcore islamists:
They'd rather
