I think that is the best explanation. It has the feel of bad positioning

Eventually it will get cleared up but trying to figure out here and now

It's a fragile truce so I am surprised how confident the UST rally has been overnight. I guess taking cues from Trump who seems to have his own favored take on developments

They are now recovering from the early session lows, though the long end continues to lag ahead of this week’s 10y and 30y Treasury auctions

Trump’s Iran ultimatum is basically the only story for bond traders today. USTs have seen a volatile morning, swinging back and forth in reaction to the news and moves in crude oil prices.

Donald Trump: "you can't put nuclear weapons in the hands of a lunatic!"

USTs not reacting to this but it is notable

Ugly ISM services employment gauge

Yeah. Assuming no ceasefire or deal, the weekend hedging will be a factor.

But even before that number hits, USTs have another hurdle to clear: long-end auctions, which are looking like a serious headwind.

This is a high-stakes week for the bond market. The recent spike in crude prices - fueled by the conflict in Iran - will show up in March’s inflation data. The consensus on Wall Street is a headline print of 1%.

and bartender

You make my day :)

Some weakness underneath the headline. Cycle lows AHE

Probably best to just average the past two months. Feb -133K. March 178. Avg 22.5K

Thanks! Let's have a good Friday

Cozy mini market day for the release of the March payroll report. Globex closes at 11:15 am for Good Friday

FWIW Revelio Labs says US March NFP rose 19,400

USTs switched to rally mode once crude exceeded 109 (May contract)

Epic Loonie

You have to go all the way back to Charlemagne to find someone who brought Europe together as effectively as Trump.

That is a few days old. Hike odds have come off considerably this week

Fed RMPs working. Tame quarter-end

It's mostly crude and war driven so hard to handicap but not looking good

No great surprise but still. ISM price index surging higher in March

Weird Ts getting slammed like this after ADP

Market will be sensitive to labor market data. A smallish ADP beat pressuring Ts a bit

It's quarter-end with a smallish duration extension later today. More importantly a reminder that April is the cruelest month for USTs as tax payment season liquidity squeeze generally pressures financial assets

Cuts winning out vs hikes now. Market net pricing 5 bps of cuts this year

Obviously, buying UST 5s on Friday vs swap, outright, or wings was the correct trade