heard at eurasia group

the us spent $921 billion on defense in 2025.
proposed 2027 budget: $1.5 trillion.

i’d spend time looking at the insider trading and who benefits financially from all of trump’s wild “i’ll destroy you by x date” and then sudden climb downs.

that’s much of the story here.

the unnecessary origin story of trump's nato breakup, in his own words: "it all began with greenland."

while the americans are threatening iran’s obliteration, france scores an iranian diplomacy win.

israel is already hitting more iranian infrastructure—at least ten railroad targets struck today.

it looks bad for the us president to threaten genocide

“there is no longer a nuclear threat from north korea” - donald trump, 2018

could iran be next?

GZERO Community Welcome to the GZERO community. We're glad you’re joining this global group trying to understand and influence the forces reshaping our world. The geopolitical context is undeniable: No single power o...

got a policy question for me?
i'll be answering your calls tomorrow at 10:30am et for a live “ask ian” call-in show. sign up for the gzero community to join the stream.

Will Hungary's strongman Viktor Orbán lose his empire? | Ian Explains YouTube video by GZERO Media

viktor orbán has dominated hungarian politics for 16 years.
but his veneer of invincibility is cracking.
polling shows his opponent may outscore him by 11 points in the upcoming election.
@gzeromedia.com

before the war: supplies shipped directly from dubai to port sudan
now: trucked through saudi arabia, barged across the red sea. 10 extra days. 25% higher cost. over 19 million sudanese face acute food insecurity.

Who’s negotiating with Iran to keep trade moving? | Ian Bremmer's Quick Take YouTube video by GZERO Media

if the us wants the strait reopened
there are only two options:
massive escalation
or accepting iran’s leverage.
@gzeromedia.com

trump's proposed 2027 budget.
defense up $440.9 billion.
most everything else — health, housing, education, labor, agriculture — cut.

Trump and Putin demand your vote | PUPPET REGIME YouTube video by GZERO Media

puppet regime has been nominated for a webby award (for comedy, not current affairs...which is probably wrong)
if you've watched it, you know why. if you haven't, now's a good time. vote here: vote.webbyawards.com/PublicVoting...

one of the most severe energy security threats in decades and it's day 34.

66% of americans now disapprove of the iran war. that's up since it started. only 29% say it's been worth the toll in american lives and costs — lower than iraq war support at the same point.

rambling, unmoored and unserious.
in way over his head.

us allies deeply concerned by the 19 minute iran speech from the commander in chief.

The case against political prediction markets The day before the United States and Israel struck Iran on February 28, more than 150 accounts on Polymarket correctly bet it would happen on that specific date.

i've been watching prediction markets closely for years. i've come to believe they're more corrosive for public life than social media.

here's why — and why we banned them at eurasia group.

satire/news:

i’m trying to imagine a trucker in iowa thinking “i don’t mind paying way more for gas now that the iranian navy has been damaged.”

my two cents on president trump speech tonight:

gas over $4
popularity under 40
thousands of troops sent to the region

he’ll try to explain why the sacrifice is small and worth it. and how the us has already basically won.

i’d be surprised with any concrete breakthrough with iranians.

the pentagon wants three more bases in greenland. this could have (and should have) been negotiated months ago. much more sensible than threats of annexation.

trump can't legally withdraw from nato without senate consent.

but if nato members can't trust that the united states will honor article 5, the alliance is already broken in the way that matters most.

iran’s new regime president:
masoud pezeshkian

iran’s old regime president:
masoud pezeshkian

China and Pakistan push five-point peace plan for Middle East | ask ian YouTube video by GZERO Media

china and pakistan want the iran war to stop.
their new five-point plan: ceasefire. secure shipping. restore the strait.
pretty much everyone not fighting would sign up.
@gzeromedia.com

people who use social media < 1 hour a day: 73% say democracy is the best form of government
people who use it 5+ hours a day: 57%

the more time you spend on social media, the less you believe in democracy (and for the bots: the less you believe in democracy the more time you spend on social media)

china involving itself directly in the business of hormuz strait security is an important unintended consequence of the iran war.

gas above $4 for the first time since 2022

china and pakistan release five point peace plan for ending iran war.

no mention of us and israel
call to restore full passage of strait of hormuz (no iran ability to disrupt/charge tolls).

initiative should be welcomed by pretty much everybody.

Trump says he's not ready "quite yet" to leave it to allies to reopen Strait of Hormuz amid Iran war President Trump told CBS News that he is not ready "quite yet" to abandon efforts to force Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, despite a Truth Social post suggesting allies need to do it themselves.

www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-i...