FT report this morning referred to a charge per barrel. I think some reporting is scaling that up to per ship and not making clear the distinction.

And ideologies.

Y’all are both wrong about this lol.

Uh, yeah, sure, Chinese equity traders are MAGA. ???

I thought @michaelsantoli.bsky.social did a great job answering that tbh

Put differently: write off US equity market moves as dumb MAGA-friendly Wall Street people pushing buttons all you want but I assure you the marginal buyers and sellers of domestic stocks in Karachi or Beijing, or European front-end rates traders, have a very different set of biases.

There are good reasons to suspect that the current ceasefire has huge challenges before becoming something more durable, and flows through Hormuz are going to take a long time to normalize. But global markets (including many w/ little US investor influence like Pakistan or China) don't care.

Two different STOXX 600 groups (Travel/Leisure and Banks) up over 7%, another seven up at least 6%. iTraxx Xover (CDS on sub-IG corporate issuers) drops by most since March of 2020 (and I think that one was roll-related). VIX biggest drop in a year. US futures session highs, pointing to a +2.8% open

Some absolutely wild market moves overnight. Pakistan's KSE-100 had its biggest gain (9.09%) since 1998. EM equities up over 5%. German 2y yields down almost 25 bps for the 6th largest move since at least 1990. GBPUSD up 1.3%, ZAR up over 2% versus USD. CSI 300 (onshore China) up over 3%.

US earnings are under way! $DAL beats Q1 but pulls full year guide

*DELTA AIR LINES 1Q ADJ EPS 64C, EST. 57C
*DELTA AIR LINES 1Q ADJ. REV. $14.20B, EST. $14.08B
*DELTA AIR LINES SEES 2Q PRE-TAX PROFIT OF AROUND $1B
*DELTA AIR LINES SEES 2Q FUEL COST INCREASE OVER $2B AT HIGH END

Yes and no. Cracks blew out initially because of cut refiner runs in Asia. Then they started to narrow as everyone ran low on crude and bid for anything they could to keep running. I'm not surprised cracks are staying *wide* but *wider* than yesterday is somewhat surprising.

1y chart of front-month crude/products spreads. The price is a 3:2:1 weighted spread between WTI (3 barrels), gasoline (2 barrels), and diesel (1 barrel).

Notable that amidst the sharp drop in both crude and products prices, cracks are slightly *wider* than yesterday.

Look I’m not saying Latino precincts all across the country are the same, just that every election we’ve seen since November 2024 has seen them swing the same way and if that correlation sticks around a bit…Operación Dumbo Gota.

Jesus Christ

$2mm/hull*

If this is just $1/hull it’s effectively a massive punitive transfer payment from the GCC to Iran, incredible stuff. They don’t start the war, get caught in the cross fire and take tons of damage from it, and now have to pay the reparations. Honestly amazing.

$1/barrel works out to $0.02/gallon (rounded). Vast majority of US gasoline supply doesn’t come from Gulf crude though, so in practice in the US market it would be less.

oman telling the US to split 8s and iran to double down on 14 while they’re sitting on a pair of 9s and the dealer’s showing a 7

On big boy VLCCs this is a very manageable $1/bbl but on container or smaller format tankers it becomes pretty hard to pay, I really question whether it will be that high per ship on average.

Omg I have seen this in my FYP and want to make it but haven’t figured out steaming logistics.

Learn to sit back and observe

Oman receiving revenue for doing nothing

5y chart of oil on water (oil in tankers that have been at rest over a week)

1.2bn barrels as of last week.

Those words don’t mean that dude.

lol yep.

Pakistan and Oman both come out of this much better than anyone else in the region yeah.

Please point to where in my post I did anything even remotely related to “buying into IRGC myths of invincibility”, what are you even talking about?

$90+ WTI still very much acknowledged that supply problem.

POINT ELEVEN: TRUMP MUST IMMEDIATELY RECEIVE THE LIGHT OF ISLAM AND RECITE THE SHAHADA ON “FOX & FRIENDS”

This kind of move is exactly why futures never went to $130, $140, etc in the first place btw.

You’re forgetting a permanent shift in the Gulf security picture, significant geopolitical risk premiums remaining in oil prices, huge holes in the US weapons inventory, and 500mm barrels of uncertainty needing to be replaced across the petroleum market. But yeah otherwise back to status quo ante.