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Latest Posts by Ville Kostian

Kim Jong Un’s sister Kim Yo Jong responded positively to South Korean President Lee Jae Myung’s expression of regret over a recent South Korean drone incursion into North Korea. ISW-CDOT does not assess that this will make inter-Korean dialogue more likely in the near future, however.

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South Korean officials are pursuing nuclear submarine development to address perceived capability gaps in countering North Korean capabilities.

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NEW: South Korea is pre-emptively planning to meet with the IAEA to assuage potential proliferation concerns stemming from its plan to develop nuclear submarines.

Korean Peninsula Update April 7, 2026: isw.pub/KoreanPenins...

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Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 7, 2026 Russian forces continue to conduct drone strikes intentionally targeting civilians in southern Ukraine, weaponizing civilian harm.

6/ Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 7, 2026:

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5/ Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Slovyansk direction.

Ukrainian forces struck oil infrastructure in Leningrad Oblast and a defense industrial plant in Voronezh Oblast.

Russian forces launched 110 drones against Ukraine.

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NEW: Russian forces continue to conduct drone strikes intentionally targeting civilians in southern Ukraine, weaponizing civilian harm as an intentional tool of war. 🧵(1/6)

Read more: isw.pub/UkrWar040726

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Iran Update Special Report, April 7, 2026 The United States and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire brokered by Pakistan and will begin negotiations in Islamabad, Pakistan on April 11.

10/ Iran Update Special Report, April 7, 2026:

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9/ Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Commander Brigadier General Ahmad Vahidi and Khatam ol Anbia Central Headquarters Commander Ali Abdollahi Aliabadi are reportedly driving decisions related to Iran’s kinetic response to the US and Israeli air campaign.

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NEW: The United States and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire brokered by Pakistan on April 7 and will begin negotiations in Islamabad, Pakistan, on April 11. 🧵(1/10)

Read more: isw.pub/IranUpdate04...

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US and Iran agree to 2-week ceasefire but Israel says deal doesn't include fight against Hezbollah Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says Israel backed the U.S. ceasefire with Iran but that the deal doesn’t cover fighting against Hezbollah in Lebanon.

‘US and Iran agree to 2-week ceasefire but Israel says deal doesn't include fight against Hezbollah’
apnews.com/article/iran...

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Live updates: US and Iran agree to a two-week ceasefire Iran says it has accepted a two-week ceasefire in the war, and will negotiate with the United States in Islamabad beginning Friday. President Donald Trump said Tuesday he’s pulling back on his threats...

‘Iran, Oman to charge for Strait of Hormuz passage’
apnews.com/live/iran-wa...

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US and Iran agree to two-week ceasefire, with strait of Hormuz to open Last-minute intervention led by Pakistan cancels Trump ultimatum for Iran to surrender or face annihilation

The US and Iran agreed to a two-week conditional ceasefire after a last-minute diplomatic intervention led by Pakistan, canceling an ultimatum from Donald Trump for Iran to surrender or face widespread destruction.

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16 Cameroonians killed fighting for Russia in Ukraine, officials say The acknowledgement, which was delivered to Yaounde by Russian officials and broadcast through Cameroonian state media on April 6, marks the first time Cameroon has formally spoken of its citizens' in...

⚡️16 Cameroonians killed fighting for Russia in Ukraine, officials say.

The acknowledgement, which was delivered to Yaounde by Russian officials and broadcast through Cameroonian state media on April 6, marks the first time Cameroon has formally spoken of its citizens' involvement in the war.

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What we know about the US and Iran's ceasefire deal The provisional truce comes more than a month after the US and Israel launched coordinated attacks on Iran.

What we know about the US and Iran's ceasefire deal

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ISW-CTP will provide further analysis on the war with Iran in its April 7 Iran Update. Read ISW-CTP's latest analysis about the war here: understandingwar.org....

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7/ Several railways and highways in northwestern and central Iran were struck. Anti-regime media noted that one of the struck railway bridges in Zanjan Province is located near an ammunition and missile depot.

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NEW: US President Donald Trump’s deadline for Iran to reach an agreement before the United States strikes Iranian energy infrastructure is set to expire in several hours. Iran rejected the United States’ terms for a ceasefire and responded with a “maximalist” counterproposal yesterday. (1/7)

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Some PLA discussions of integrating unmanned systems into complex combat operations assume that PLA unmanned systems will be purpose-built, survivable, and capable of complex tasks. isw.pub/PLAContempor...

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Recent PLA discussions of contemporary conflict similarly emphasize the potential utility of AI-enabled swarm technology, despite its limited use on the modern battlefield.

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MORE: The PLA may be looking to Russia’s Rubikon Center for Advanced Unmanned Technologies as a model for structural change. PLA discussions of Rubikon do not integrate tactical lessons of its use of low-cost systems, however.

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President Zelensky announces preparation of a European security package after talks in the Middle East and Gulf, focusing on joint production, defense modernization, funding, and coordinated security actions. #Ukraine

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Tracking recent US-Israeli strikes on Iranian infrastructure Attacks have targeted bridges, steel plants and pharmaceutical facilities, verified videos show.

Tracking recent US-Israeli strikes on Iranian infrastructure

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🇺🇦 Zelensky: We are now preparing the European part of our security proposals, which were presented and adopted during negotiations in the Middle East and the Gulf countries in recent weeks. They are now at war, unfortunately.

The Ukrainian expertise worked, everyone recognizes this.

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1/ Many scenarios for the end of the Iran war suggest that Tehran will gain permanent control of the Strait of Hormuz. An analysis by JP Morgan suggests that Tehran could raise up to $90 billion a year this way, instantly making Iran one of the wealthiest Gulf economies. ⬇️

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Ukraine keeps hitting same Russian oil terminal — and it’s getting worse every night Ukraine is systematically destroying Russia's Baltic oil gateway.

Ukraine has struck Russia's Baltic oil export infrastructure three nights running, destroying tanks at Ust-Luga, hitting Transneft-Port Primorsk, and damaging primary processing units at a Lukoil refinery

The revenues from these facilities fund Russia's war euromaidanpress.com/2026/04/07/u...

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Russia and China veto watered-down UN resolution aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz Russia and China have vetoed a U.N. Security Council resolution aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

" #Russia and #China veto watered-down #UN resolution aimed at reopening the Strain of #Hormuz" - #MidEast
apnews.com/article/un-i...

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#Russia National Welfare Fund end-March
$165.0 bn (end-February $175.3bn).

Liquid funds (i.e. RMB and gold) $47.8bn ($51.8bn), or 1.7% of GDP.

Liquid funds now $95bn lower than in the summer 2022.

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The White House denies reports that it is considering using nuclear weapons in Iran.- AFP

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Orbán’s rival Magyar slams JD Vance’s Hungary visit as election meddling Hungary’s history “is not written in Washington,” opposition leader says.

" #Orbán ’s rival #Magyar slams JD #Vance ’s #Hungary visit as election meddling"
www.politico.eu/article/vikt...

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Europe mulls the prospect of a NATO without the US As the US president escalates threats to destroy Iran, will NATO be collateral damage? A former American ambassador says the alliance is “not dead” but “deeply damaged” by transatlantic divisions.

" #Europe mulls the prospect of a #NATO without the US"
www.dw.com/en/europe-mu...

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