Holy crap, the Democrats actually won a WOW County. Ozaukee County has finally voted for them:

2024- R+10
2025- R+4
2026- D+4

Combine that with Waukesha County being a single-digit Republican win, the suburbs were not doing their thing for the Republicans tonight.

THE DEMOCRATS HAVE WON THE WAUKESHA MAYORAL RACE:

Alicia Halvensleben (Dem-aligned)- 51.3%
Scott Allen (GOP-aligned)- 48.7%

Somehow Dane County just keeps getting bluer:

2024- D+52
2025- D+64
2026- D+68

The Madison blue supernova will continue to grow until morale improves

I don't think anything else sums up tonight for the Wisconsin Republicans more than this.

Waukesha within 10 points is just the biggest warning sign known to mankind

Half of the vote now reporting in Waukesha and the Democrats are still winning the Mayor's race:

Alicia Halvensleben (Dem-aligned)- 54%
Scott Allen (GOP-aligned)- 46%

Final results in the Georgia #SD53 (Trump+58) special election:

Lanny Thomas (R)- 68.7%
Jack Zibluk (D)- 31.3%

Over 20 point overperformance for the Democrats in northwest Georgia!

First results in the Waukesha Mayoral election:

Alicia Halvensleben (Dem-aligned)- 53.5%
Scott Allen (GOP-aligned)- 46.5%

Early lead for the Democrats in the once-beating heart of the Wisconsin Republican Party

Final results in the Georgia #HD130 (Harris+36) special election:

Sheila Clark Nelson (D)- 70.7%
Thomas McAdams (R)- 29.3%

Low turnout in this Augusta district, but still a five point overperformance for the Democrats

All the early vote reporting in the Georgia #SD53 (Trump+58) special election:

Lanny Thomas (R)- 61.1%
Jack Zibluk (D)- 38.9%

I think I'm seeing special election coattails for the first time ever, as this district is entirely in #GA14.

Yeah, but the local races in Wisconsin will probably take up more of my attention

R+20 or somewhere around there

We have two special elections tonight in Georgia! They're happening in #SD53 (Trump+58) in northwest Georgia and #HD130 (Harris+36) in Augusta.

Both should be easy holds for their respective parties.

And here it is in chart form.

No competitive Democratic-held districts! This is mostly because of strong Democratic incumbents and Republicans really not contesting Democratic districts. Seriously, they didn't contest any Democratic-held Senate districts.

Here is my first set of ratings for this year's state legislative elections in Oklahoma!

The Republican supermajorities in both chambers are very likely to stay, but the Democrats have several flip opportunities, mostly in suburban Oklahoma City and Lawton.

COMING TONIGHT: My first set of ratings for this year's state legislative elections in Oklahoma!

The Oklahoma Democrats have been among the nation's strongest Democrats in special election performances, but can that translate to gains in November?

Holly Kim precincts in Englewood

Ratings are based off of previous election results, incumbent strength, and opponent candidate quality.

And here it is in chart form.

The Democrats are already favored to flip two seats in the House, so they just need to flip one of the six toss-ups to break the supermajority. The Senate is a little trickier (needing to win Trump+3 & 5 seats), but it's definitely possible.

Here are my first set of ratings for this year's state legislative elections in Missouri!

The Democrats need three seats to break the supermajority in the State House and two seats to break the supermajority in the State Senate. Both definitely doable in a Democratic midterm.

COMING TONIGHT: My first set of ratings for this year's state legislative elections in Missouri!

The Missouri Democrats are raring to break the Republican supermajorities in both chambers, can a favorable national environment lead them to doing that?

The most competitive district on the proposed 10-1 Virginia Democratic gerrymander is #VA06, which connects blue towns/cities from the Shenandoah Valley to the college town of Blacksburg.

It backed Harris by 3, but backed Governor Spanberger by 12 last year.

In the recent primary for state Comptroller, all four Democratic candidates won their current constituencies - there really is no place like home.

(1/6)

People in 1996: "Man, 30 years from now is going to be so cool! I wonder what cool stuff we'll be doing!"

30 years later:

And here it is in chart form.

The South Carolina Republicans left a Trump-district Democrat uncontested in #HD55, repped by Coach Jackie Hayes. They also left a few marginal Harris-won seats uncontested, so that probably shows the environment we're heading for this November.

Here are my first ratings for this year's State House elections in South Carolina.

The Republicans are favored to keep their supermajority, but the Democrats have an outside chance at breaking it, mostly through winning back seats that have trended away from them recently.

COMING TONIGHT: My first set of ratings for this year's state legislative elections in South Carolina!

For the first time in modern history, the South Carolina Democrats are fielding candidates in all 124 House districts. Will that help them break the Republican supermajority?

I love how that Politico puff piece on Rahm Emanuel was all about him being this moderate fighter who doesn’t back down

And then it ends with him awkwardly sidestepping a hot button issue. What a fighter!

Folks, I don't know how to describe this, but I've received some stunning news in the races for State Legislature here in Illinois.

All of the candidates have dropped out. I don't know what to say, but all of the candidates have dropped out and consolidated behind one man...

Final results in the Massachusetts #HD5thEssex (Harris+33.5) special election:

Andrew Tarr (D)- 64%
Christina Delisio (R)- 29%
Gilbert Frieden (Independent)- 7%

Slight overperformance from 2024 for the Democrats, with 7% of the vote going to a left-wing independent.