Comparison between true state probabilities, stationary approximation, and periodically stationary distribution for three different simulated Markov Chains. The bias of the stationary distribution is severe.
Overall dwell-time distribution in the active state of the fruit flies in two light conditions. Both distributions deviate substantially from a geometric one.
Using #simulations and a case study on #fruitflies 🪰, we show that
- the widely used stationary approximation can be severely biased! ❌
- dwell-time distributions can deviate substantially from a #geometric shape.
#HMM #MarkovChain #seasonality #diel #stats #rstats #StatisticalEcology #behaviour