AI For The Skeptics: Pick Your Reasons To Be Excited
It’s odd being a technology writer in 2026, because around you are many people who will tell you that your craft is outdated. Like the manufacturers of buggy-whips at the turn of the twentieth century, the automobile (in the form of large language model AI) is on the market, and your business will soon be an anachronism. Adapt or go extinct, they tell you. It’s an argument I’ve found myself facing a few times over the last year in my wandering existence, and it’s forced me to think about it. What are the reasons everyone is excited about AI and are those reasons valid, what is there to be scared of, and what are the real reasons people should be excited about it?
## If We Gotta Take This Seriously, How Can We Do It?
The futures looking bright in the buggy-whip department! Public domain.
I’ll start by repeating my tale from a few weeks ago when I asked readers what AI applications would survive when the hype is over. The reaction of a friend with decades of software experience on trying an AI coding helper stuck with me; she referenced her grandfather who had been born in rural America in the closing years of the nineteenth century, and recalled him describing the first time he saw an automobile. I agree with her that this has the potential to be a transformative technology, and while it’s entertaining to make fun of its shortcomings as I did three years ago when the idea of what we now call vibe coding first appeared, it’s already making itself useful in some applications. Simply dismissing it is no longer appropriate, but equally, drinking freely of the Kool-Aid seems like joining yet another hype bandwagon that will inevitably derail. A middle way has to be found.
It’s likely many of us will over the last couple of years met a Guy In A Suit who’s got a little too excited about ChatGPT. I think guys like him are motivated by several things; he’s impressed with that LLM because it appears really smart to him, he’s used it to make himself appear smart to other people so it’s made him feel smarter than the engineer who’s pointing out his flaws, he thinks it’s a magic bullet that can do lots of work for him and either save or make him lots of money, and perhaps most importantly, he’s scared witless of missing out on the Next Big Thing.
## Plus ça Change, When It Comes To Hype
It’s easy to take pot-shots at those motivations even it it won’t make you popular. His feeling smart will last only as long as the moment he gets it that everyone else has the same thing, or perhaps until it leads him astray into a calamitous decision. Meanwhile there’s a good chance the magic bullet will go the way that wholesale outsourcing of software development did twenty years ago, as an over reliance on something-for-nothing work will generate far more other work to fix its problems. But while those pot-shots weaken some arguments they aren’t perhaps the crushing blows one might imagine they are. LLMs have their uses, however annoying that may be if you’re sick to death of low-value slop.
The Gartner hype cycle graph. Jeremykemp, CC BY-SA 3.0.
Perhaps more worthy of examination is the fear of missing out, because that’s a more fundamental motivation. We all want to be among the Cool Kids, Hackaday readers having the latest tech toys before everyone else are not immune to this. And when you have convinced yourself that the alternative to being one of the Cool Kids is being the commercial equivalent of a buggy-whip salesman circa 1920, it assumes an extra urgency. It’s time to look at a perennial favourite, the Gartner Hype Cycle, for inspiration. Just where on a Gartner Hype Cycle curve do you have to be, to miss out?
On the left of the graph is the steep slope towards the Peak of Inflated Expectation. This is the part we most associate with tech bubbles; as an example we might point to the dotcom boom during its most intensive period in 1997 or 1998. If you pick the moment of the peak or indeed the downward slope towards the Trough of Disillusionment to jump in, then it’s obvious you have missed out. But how far back down the upward slope do you have to be to have not missed out? I’d contend that it’s much earlier, to use our dotcom boom analogy: if you weren’t in the game by 1996, perhaps you were too late. Transposing to the AI boom of today, has our Guy In A Suit already missed the boat without realising it?
## They’re Looking At The Wrong Part Of The Graph
We had forgotten the pets.com mascot from the peak of the dotcom era. Jacob Bøtter, CC BY 2.0.
It pains me when I see people newly excited by AI in 2026 for the reasons listed above. To them they’re valid, but having lived and worked through so many other booms and subsequent crashes driven by similar ideas about those technologies I know how the next year or so will go. I think there are many other valid reasons to be excited here, but they lie elsewhere on the Gartner graph. Back to the dotcom boom, the whole thing was driven by sometimes outright crazy ideas surrounding e-commerce, yet it would be social media a decade later that would make many of the huge players we have today. Could someone have made Facebook in 1996? Possibly, but if anyone thought of it at that point, it seems they didn’t do it. If Guy In A Suit is looking for something to be excited about, he should be polishing his crystal balls and looking ahead to the right hand side of the Gartner graph in a decade’s time, not running with the herd.
Returning to my first paragraph and whether a writer will inevitably join the buggy-whip salesmen, I remain rather optimistic that they won’t. Hackaday is meat-based for good reason, but more generally I’m watching the consumer develop a hair-trigger response to slop. I’m certain that there will be a space for machine-generated content in the future whether we like it or not, but I’m equally sure that in my line at least, a human input will retain some value.
Having considered Guy In A Suit and then myself, perhaps it’s time to talk about you, the Hackaday reader. We probably have more AI-skeptics among us than can be found in the general public and I consider myself in part among them, but for all that skepticism I think we should channel it into seeking out the interesting things rather than turning our backs on it. I’ve mentioned the AI-based coding helpers as an example where our community has found some benefit, and as I’ve mentioned before I think that the ability to run a useful LLM locally on commodity hardware delivers huge potential over a cloud data-slurper. If we don’t believe in it, at least we should be like Fox Mulder, and _want_ to believe.
Where are you on that continuum?
AI For The Skeptics: Pick Your Reasons To Be Excited It’s odd being a technology writer in 2026, because around you are many people who will tell you that your craft is outdated. Like the manufac...
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