Latest posts tagged with #IndyRef on Bluesky
"‘Seismic change’: how election wins for nationalists in Celtic nations could reshape UK
With polls suggesting #PlaidCymru, the #SNP and #SinnFéin could be in power after May vote, constitutional challenges may lie ahead"
#SpéirGhorm #IrishUnity #YesCymru #IndyRef
www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
#indyref
#ScotlandsRightToChoose
#DissolveTheUnion
#exBrit
#RefugeesWelcome
#ScottishIndependence
#ScottishIndependenceASAP
#BrexitBrokeBritain
#Cymru
#NorthernIreland
#RejoinTheEU
#BrexitHasFailed
#TheNorth
Never forget #indyref 2014, the BBC platforming “their” experts. Controlling agenda and more. 👇
www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scot...
Scottish independence means the ability to rejoin the EU, reject Brexit and forge our own destiny #indyref #independence
Don’t ever believe that man. Only saying that to perhaps gain a few votes. He will never allow another #indyref
Calculation table showing data from General Registrars of Scotland 2025 population estimates. 17.2% of the electorate are aged 16 to 26 and too young to have voted in 2014. Of those older than 26, 85% voted, so 15% did not. This equates to a further 12.4% of the current electorate. The total Did Not Vote figure is 29.6%.
For the benefit of Lord Ashcroft (and indeed most pollsters). Here's a back of fag packet calculation of how many people did not vote in the 2014 #Indyref.
Anyone 26 and under was too young.
And 85% of those old enough voted (15% did not).
The figure rounds to 30%.
It's not rocket science!
An 'interesting' poll from Lord Ashcroft, but one that should be taken with a large dose of salt. The voting intention questions are convoluted, encompassing party choice and likelihood to vote in one metric.
His #Indyref sample is highly skewed with no turnout weighting.
Yes, 'non-standard' is rather mild. Wacky was the word that came to my mind.
The #Indyref weighting is very skewed (only 21% DNV) and has no turnout weighting applied.
His age demographics seem spot-on though.
But not a member of either BPC or MRS, so would take these figures with a pinch of salt.
Not sure how well that's holding up though, seeing as people like Nick Robinson are still part of BBC News after his lies & manipulation during Scottish #IndyRef.
I was at that rally! So positive, to the point where I went home convinced we'd win #Indyref 😓
We tried both votes in 2011 and ended up with an @snp.org MAJORITY government and a legal mandate for #indyref in 2014,since then, vote splitters have ruined our chances of an independent Scotland. We had a coalition gov with the Greens and it did not bring us a referendum. Why not?
John Swinney MSP: "Your 1st
SNP vote elects an SNP
Government.
Use it to vote for a better NHS.
For GP walk-in clinics.
For cost of living help.
For first-time buyers' deposit
A massive increase in childcare.
Your 2nd SNP vote delivers independence.
It secures a majority for #IndyRef…..
For those interested in some of the issues around data consistency & quality and what it means for #indyref polling, this new blog post explores it.
indyvoices.info/rating-the-p...
Bar chart summarising the combined scores (out of 300) for the main #Indyref pollsters. It shows Ipsos top on 293, followed by Find Out Now on 284, Norstat on 279, Survation on 276, Savanta on 271. The lowest three are Yougov on 271, Opinium on 265 and More in Common on 264.
I finally wrote a new blog post! This is one for the geeks; looking at what differentiates different pollsters and what is good and not so good about their polling samples. I tried to objectively compare the eight main #Indyref polling companies. Read it here:
indyvoices.info/rating-the-p...
You want a pro-independence majority in Holyrood. You’ve been told "Both Votes SNP" is the only way to stay loyal. But what if I told you that in most of Scotland, that 2nd cross on your ballot actually helps Unionist parties gain seats? It’s time to talk about the "SNP Tax." #Holyrood2026 #IndyRef
Line chart showing the #Indyref voting intentions of those who did not vote in 2014 since early 2024. It shows a consistent majority for Yes, growing from 56% to around 66% in the latest polling. Data from Norstat, Survation, Opinium and Savanta.
Upwards of a third of the electorate did not vote in the 2014 #indyref. They've now had more than a decade to see how well the union has treated Scotland and its citizens.
Their judgement?
They want Scotland to be an independent country by a factor of two to one.
Time to let them have a say!
On Thursday 7 May, it’s crucial that people get out and #vote.
🟡 𝐕𝐨𝐭𝐞 𝐒𝐍𝐏 𝟏
🟢 𝐕𝐨𝐭𝐞 𝐒𝐜𝐨𝐭𝐭𝐢𝐬𝐡 𝐆𝐫𝐞𝐞𝐧𝐬 𝟐
Both votes for SNP is negligible and risks handing seats to Westminster-owned parties, including the racist Reform party - something #Scotland simply can’t afford.
#HR2026 #indyref
On Thursday 7 May, it’s crucial that people get out and #vote.
🟡 𝐕𝐨𝐭𝐞 𝐒𝐍𝐏 𝟏
🟢 𝐕𝐨𝐭𝐞 𝐒𝐜𝐨𝐭𝐭𝐢𝐬𝐡 𝐆𝐫𝐞𝐞𝐧𝐬 𝟐
Both votes for SNP is negligible and risks handing seats to Westminster-owned parties, including the racist Reform party - something #Scotland simply can’t afford.
#HR2026 #indyref
On Thursday 7 May, it’s crucial that people get out and #vote.
🟡 𝐕𝐨𝐭𝐞 𝐒𝐍𝐏 𝟏
🟢 𝐕𝐨𝐭𝐞 𝐒𝐜𝐨𝐭𝐭𝐢𝐬𝐡 𝐆𝐫𝐞𝐞𝐧𝐬 𝟐
Both votes for SNP is negligible and risks handing seats to Westminster-owned parties, including the racist Reform party - something #Scotland simply can’t afford.
#HR2026 #indyref
On Thursday 7 May, it’s crucial that people get out and #vote.
🟡 𝐕𝐨𝐭𝐞 𝐒𝐍𝐏 𝟏
🟢 𝐕𝐨𝐭𝐞 𝐒𝐜𝐨𝐭𝐭𝐢𝐬𝐡 𝐆𝐫𝐞𝐞𝐧𝐬 𝟐
Both votes for SNP is negligible and risks handing seats to Westminster-owned parties, including the racist Reform party - something #Scotland simply can’t afford.
#HR2026 #indyref
On Thursday 7 May, it’s crucial that people get out and #vote.
🟡 𝐕𝐨𝐭𝐞 𝐒𝐍𝐏 𝟏
🟢 𝐕𝐨𝐭𝐞 𝐒𝐜𝐨𝐭𝐭𝐢𝐬𝐡 𝐆𝐫𝐞𝐞𝐧𝐬 𝟐
Both votes for SNP is negligible and risks handing seats to Westminster-owned parties, including the racist Reform party - something #Scotland simply can’t afford.
#HR2026 #indyref
On Thursday 7 May, it’s crucial that people get out and #vote.
🟡 𝐕𝐨𝐭𝐞 𝐒𝐍𝐏 𝟏
🟢 𝐕𝐨𝐭𝐞 𝐒𝐜𝐨𝐭𝐭𝐢𝐬𝐡 𝐆𝐫𝐞𝐞𝐧𝐬 𝟐
Both votes for SNP is negligible and risks handing seats to Westminster-owned parties, including the racist Reform party - something #Scotland simply can’t afford.
#HR2026 #indyref
At what point do calls for another Scottish #indyref become a thing?
(Joke, joke.)
I think the SNP claiming they need a majority for another #indyref was a foolish decision. It's virtually impossible to get one through this electoral system. It requires a massive vote share on the regional list that simply is no longer there.
Bar chart showing the published BBC Savanta poll figures of 51% Yes and 49% No It also shows how this would look if we used ‘normal’ voting patterns from Ipsos
To highlight how bizarre that BBC Scotland #indyref poll from Savanta was, I applied yesterday’s Ipsos voting figures to the 2014 Yes sample in the Savanta poll. These were 71% /18% /10% (Yes/No/DK). This gives us a 60% Yes vote (excluding don’t knows).
I just heard Glenn Campbell talking about the #Indyref2 voting figures from the Savanta poll. He quoted:
Yes: 47%
No: 44%
D/K: 8%
These figures sound like they're weighted by 2014 results (which Savanta typically do) but the previously published tables (without #Indyref voting) have no 2014 weight
Line chart showing the Yougov weighted sample over time, split by 2014 vote status. It shows the 'Did not vote' category flatlining at 21% since November 2022.
The make-up of Yougov's #Indyref polling sample has not changed for the past 51 months.
Using the 2014 vote to weight already skews in favour of No voters.
And on top of that they apply no turnout filter.
Why academics use this pollster without questioning their data quality is really beyond me!
Anyone saying other than #BothVotesSNP has forgotten 2011 and how that SNP majority was achieved .. And delivered #Indyref 1..
